From this 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/8220/gfs-2012032500-1-6_drz9.png

To this

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3922/gfs-1-162_ljb6.png

Quite a change within a week. 

EDIT: And the high pressure anomaly over Greenland is notable.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3064/gfs-0-162_qhl9.png

Edited by user 25 March 2012 16:32:53(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Not looking good down in the drought areas again tonight remains very dry untill at least the 10th April

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png

I just hopeful that if the cooler weekend happens? The air might get a bit clearer! OK it's not been too bad last few days but been so misty/hazy. Would be nice to see a proper clear sky!

Originally Posted by: doctormog

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

Not looking good down in the drought areas again tonight remains very dry untill at least the 10th April

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png

On the chart I am looking at, at time of writing, that is still the 00z GFS operational data not the 12z run.

The  now updated 12z version has a much wetter April outlook than the 00z. Though being FI it could be completely different next time round.

Edited by user 25 March 2012 17:25:29(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Gavin D

Yes just spotted that show's how uncertain things are going into April, its either going to be a wet start or we'll see more of the same

I don't think we will see more of the same, it's looking like a very wet pattern could be setting itself up.

The NAO is set to turn very negative, but whether we get a western based negative NAO or Eastern based will have a huge effect on our weather.

It looks like next saturday could see a very notable cold front appoaching from the North if ECM is to be believed, the cold uppers combined with a strengthening sun could promote some thundery April showers.

A northerly of some formlooks likely next weekend, however after that is uncertain.

If the negative NAO is western based:

The weather would become very mild with SSW winds and high pressure over E Europe. Though it wouldn't be particularly settled especially in NW areas, but the SE would see below average rainfall. Minimum temperatures would be particularly high for early April.

If the negative NAO is Eastern based:

We would see especially cold temperatures for early April across the UK as cold uppers become entrenched over the UK. High pressure would persist to our NW and lows from the Atlantic will bump into this cold air. An exceptionally wet pattern if this occurs and wintry weather in places too. Apattern somewhat reminiscent to early April 1998 and 2000.

I reckon the neg NAO will be more western based but there is potential for a cold pattern to set in here. I would prefer it TBH, will relieve the drought a bit and give some variation within the weather here. The pattern through March has been so stagnant (but the weather has been brilliant it must be said).

Save our high pressure and southerlies for the Summer instead 

Edited by user 25 March 2012 18:50:16(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

Despite the odd OP run recently most ECM ensembles don't really get that cold for London. Chillier yes but not cold and many ensembles go warm again at the end.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

For what it's worth that's the 00z ensembles.

This evening's ECm has temperatures broadly below average or around average from 31st March to 3rd April for much of the UK. Warming slightly on 04th April to a little above average, but nothing close to today or the the temperatures for the next few days.

So certainly not more of the same, and quite a change. Less balmy, but more seasonal. 

The 12zs from the big three tonight show a split from about a weeks time. All three show a fine week to come with temperatures remaining well above normal for many for a while. As the High responsible is shown to drift west through the week cooler air heads south over the UK by the end of the working week. Its beyond then that the split occurs with the difference between GFS and ECM being that GFS collapses the High away SE from Britain while ECM holds it over Britain. The result being GFS shows more unsettled weather feeding in from the Atlantic with rain or showers and much cooler conditions for all in the second week while with ECM returning the High back over the UK where it settles down once more for more dry, settled conditions though without the high temperatures currently. Things would still be very pleasant for many though.

The GFS ensembles for London do show a cool down through the latter stages of this week though the cold uppers off the operational at the end are not supported by other members though they are by the control run. Rainfall is shown to return as we move through the early stages of the new month though its too early for this to be taken too seriously yet as we need to see it verify in consecutive future runs.

The GFS operational has dropped the widespread unsettled weather that was shown in yesterdays 12z FI output in preference to High pressure straddling Britain from the SW for rather longer before a cold blast from the North occurs after day 13. Not as warm though after this week but seasonably pleasant none the less after a cooler blip at the start of the weekend. UKMO also shows High pressure remaining close by right out to day 6 with a gentle cooling off towards the weekend. ECM shows things much the same although it does show a weak but direct Northerly on Saturday which would feel very chilly after recent days, especially in the North. High pressure quickly returns though shuffling gradually SE late in its run with the Atlantic making inroads into the NW by Day 10. Rainfall this morning is once more at a premium and it looks like the South and East could remain dry throughout the next 2 weeks. Some cold nights with spring frosts look increasingly likely beyond this working week.

Originally Posted by: GIBBY

The GFS operational has dropped the widespread unsettled weather that was shown in yesterdays 12z FI output in preference to High pressure straddling Britain from the SW for rather longer before a cold blast from the North occurs after day 13. Not as warm though after this week but seasonably pleasant none the less after a cooler blip at the start of the weekend. UKMO also shows High pressure remaining close by right out to day 6 with a gentle cooling off towards the weekend. ECM shows things much the same although it does show a weak but direct Northerly on Saturday which would feel very chilly after recent days, especially in the North. High pressure quickly returns though shuffling gradually SE late in its run with the Atlantic making inroads into the NW by Day 10. Rainfall this morning is once more at a premium and it looks like the South and East could remain dry throughout the next 2 weeks. Some cold nights with spring frosts look increasingly likely beyond this working week.

Thanks Gibby, ever so slowly high pressure is winning the battle