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Solar Cycle.
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Devonian Offline
#101 Posted : 01 March 2012 22:24:26(UTC)
Devonian

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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: RobSnowman Go to Quoted Post

[quote=Steam Fog;303797]Sunspot activity now I believe at lowest level http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html Since mid August 2011. http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7522/graphe_ens3_jxs7.gif[/quote]

Interesting enough...but that second link takes me to meteociel???

Yup! Sorry bout that!

Fixed now.

You can see the drop off in January and February activity here too.

http://www.solen.info/solar/solcycle.html

Looks to me like the ups of a solar cycle are very noisey. I can't see a reason to think that this cycle will reach a peak close to what is predicted.
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RobSnowman Offline
#102 Posted : 02 March 2012 08:57:23(UTC)
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Yes just seems like one of many short term down turns in sunspot number but in an unpward trend toward peak.
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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polarwind Offline
#103 Posted : 07 March 2012 09:18:31(UTC)
polarwind

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More CME's forecasted

see - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
Dave
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Steam Fog Offline
#104 Posted : 08 March 2012 06:43:55(UTC)
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And a big upswing in sunspot activity in the last few days.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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RobSnowman Offline
#105 Posted : 08 March 2012 08:36:00(UTC)
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Yes amazing how quickly that activity has 'erupted'. There's a big solar flare heading our way too.
Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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polarwind Offline
#106 Posted : 19 March 2012 10:20:07(UTC)
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Interesting observations of the sun discussed here -

http://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/highlights/highlights.cgi?action=show&doi=10.1029/2011GL050702&jc=gl

The sun seems to be doing something not observed before?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
Dave
Derby
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Steam Fog Offline
#107 Posted : 24 March 2012 09:43:54(UTC)
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Still having difficulties really getting going. March has been busier than the very quiet February, but looks less active than January and certainly less active than December or November.

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html
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Steam Fog Offline
#108 Posted : 03 April 2012 08:44:05(UTC)
Steam Fog

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SC 24 in comparison to recent cycles.

http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html

Roughly on course

http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif

"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 61 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years." [NASA]

March stabilised things after February, but a long way from the highs at the end of last year.
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Gavin P Offline
#109 Posted : 03 April 2012 16:13:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
SC 24 in comparison to recent cycles. http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html Roughly on course http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif "The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 61 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years." [NASA] March stabilised things after February, but a long way from the highs at the end of last year.

Those graphs really do make Cycle 24 look tremendously meagre compared to the previous cycle.

Amazing to think we're probably just a year at most away from solar max.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ http://gavsweathervids.com/
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Younger Dryas Offline
#110 Posted : 03 April 2012 17:01:17(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
SC 24 in comparison to recent cycles. http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html Roughly on course http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif "The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 61 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years." [NASA] March stabilised things after February, but a long way from the highs at the end of last year.

Those graphs really do make Cycle 24 look tremendously meagre compared to the previous cycle.

Amazing to think we're probably just a year at most away from solar max.

Good, so after that we can look forward to the return of the much welcome cold winters
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Gandalf The White Offline
#111 Posted : 03 April 2012 17:28:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post
SC 24 in comparison to recent cycles. http://www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp.html Roughly on course http://solarscience.msfc...images/ssn_predict_l.gif "The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 61 in the Spring of 2013. We are currently over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle in about 100 years." [NASA] March stabilised things after February, but a long way from the highs at the end of last year.

Can someone explain something for me?

The note below the graph says SC23 lasted 12 years and 6 months, which is 150 months.  Why does the graph only show the line for SC23 out to month 130?

For the other cycles the words and the graph tie up perfectly.

Is the length of SC23 really 10 years 10 months or is the graph wrong?

Location: Watford, Hertfordshire

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Steam Fog Offline
#112 Posted : 03 April 2012 20:15:48(UTC)
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Graph looks like it could do with a little tweaking maybe?

Here's a NASA version.

http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2007/12/14/14dec_excitement_resources/cycle23_strip.gif

SC 23 was 12 years and six months from May 96 to December 2008.
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nouska Offline
#113 Posted : 04 April 2012 17:00:49(UTC)
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All those graphs are cropping cycle 23 too soon. Better representation on this one,.

Historical graphs available at this site.  http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/3/1
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Steam Fog Offline
#114 Posted : 06 April 2012 09:34:02(UTC)
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Early April starts with activity falling below any in March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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Gavin P Offline
#115 Posted : 06 April 2012 10:43:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Early April starts with activity falling below any in March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Any chance November/December 2011 could have been solar maximum?

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Solar Cycles Offline
#116 Posted : 06 April 2012 19:21:27(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Early April starts with activity falling below any in March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Any chance November/December 2011 could have been solar maximum?

I've been pondering that very same question myself. Going off previous weak cycles, they appear to show activity rising before levelling off once more, and then reaching it's peak cycle before falling away again. Very interesting too see just which way it will go from here.
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polarwind Offline
#117 Posted : 06 April 2012 22:19:25(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Early April starts with activity falling below any in March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Any chance November/December 2011 could have been solar maximum?

I've been pondering that very same question myself. Going off previous weak cycles, they appear to show activity rising before levelling off once more, and then reaching it's peak cycle before falling away again. Very interesting too see just which way it will go from here.
More interesting may be watching Hadcrut3 continue its downward trend as a consequence.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
Dave
Derby
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RobSnowman Offline
#118 Posted : 06 April 2012 22:37:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog Go to Quoted Post

Early April starts with activity falling below any in March.

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Any chance November/December 2011 could have been solar maximum?

It is fascinating to see which way it will go next. Hopefully it has peaked early.

Currently in Manchester. I built this snowman of myself.
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Steam Fog Offline
#119 Posted : 09 April 2012 06:16:11(UTC)
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This morning looks like sliding towards a possible new low for 2012.
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Steam Fog Offline
#120 Posted : 16 April 2012 19:01:26(UTC)
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Just avoided that new low, but bounced along near the bottom for a bit. Something of a rally in the last few days. But that's only in comparison with the weak showing for the first half of April.

http://www.solen.info/solar/
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