Latest from the met office
Some signs of a quieter, more settled spell of weather for a time during the first few days of March, but conditions are then likely to become more unsettled. Temperatures are probably going to be around average for the time of year, and being early March this suggests that overnight frosts are likely at times. As conditions turn more unsettled showers or longer periods of rain are expected to become more prevalent, perhaps with some transient snow, this most likely in the north. Rainfall amounts over the period as a whole are likely to be near average across the UK, though confidence in this aspect is not high.
Updated: 1222 on Thu 16 Feb 2012
Issued at: Friday 17 February 2012 at 10:03
There is a 60% probability of severe cold weather between 1200 on Saturday and 1200 on Monday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
A cold northerly flow is expected to develop during Saturday, allowing overnight temperatures to fall below freezing across northern and central parts during Saturday night and much of England during Sunday night. However, this cold spell will be short lived with mild conditions returning during Monday across all parts.
Cloudy and mild with spells of rain and drizzle at first, most persistent in western areas, and drier in the south and east. Windy for most, with gales or severe gales in northwestern areas. Staying unsettled later in the week, with occasional bands of rain, heaviest in the west, interspersed with cooler more showery periods. Occasionally there may be some hill snow in the north. Temperatures mild, locally very mild. The weekend and much of the following week will be changeable, with cloudier, milder, and wetter periods punctuated by clearer and cooler spells, with the southeast likely to be more settled. Temperatures mostly around or above normal, but there is a small probability of a colder spell with and an increased risk of snow.
Updated: 1136 on Fri 17 Feb 2012
During early to mid March, daytime maximum temperatures are likely to above average in northern areas. Some colder spells are likely during this period, with a small probability of being well below. Nighttime minimum temperatures follow a similar pattern, with mild nights most likely, occasionally some cooler ones, and some chance of it being rather cold. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue being below average in eastern areas, particularly in the east of Scotland, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.
Updated: 1137 on Fri 17 Feb 2012
no idea what the 32 dayer said but i reckon it must have trended a colder pressure pattern for them to mention possibilities of cold in both updates in the way they have.
Cold well be , but Im starting ( just) to lose the hope, time will tell though
Looks like spring is far more likely than winter over the next couple of weeks according to the experts sadly.
MATT HUGO FROM TWITTER
"Latest EC 32 day is uninspiring with a continued signal for a changeable pattern as we progress through March. Little sign for any sig cold"
LIAM DUTTON FROM TWITTER
"Just been looking at next week's weather. SW'ly wind from the Azores could give us a taste of spring. 13-16C possible!"
Edited by user 17 February 2012 13:13:20(UTC)
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id rather go with the official line (met office 32 and bbc monthly)
their "interpretation" is far more reliable
train coming nick?
I think we could have a taste of spring next week followed by a return to winter around the start of March. These dramatic swings from winter to spring and back again are often a feature of a British spring.
Yes no mention of the hinted Meto cold spell from Matt Hugo who is normally pretty good. I wonder where the Meto got the cold idea from? Hope the Meto are right on this one spring can wait until April.
Maybe that reflects todays longer range met office update?. Some colder spells are likely during this period, with a small probability of being well below.
During early to mid March, daytime maximum temperatures are likely to above average in northern areas. Some colder spells are likely during this period, with a small probability of being well below. Night time minimum temperatures follow a similar pattern, with mild nights most likely, occasionally some cooler ones, and some chance of it being rather cold. Further south, temperatures more likely to be around average, or perhaps slightly above, both by day and by night. Rainfall amounts look likely to continue being below average in eastern areas, particularly in the east of Scotland, but elsewhere average rainfall is most likely. Sunshine amounts should be above average in all areas.
Bye Bye winter, hello spring.
'Temperatures mostly around or above normal, but there is a small probability of a colder spell with and an increased risk of snow.'
I'm never sure how statements like the above get translated into 'good chance of cold weather'.Look at any ensemble chart for the past ten weeks and you could apply that forecast to any of them IMO. There is currently no indication or any reasonable probability of anything other than average or mild for the next week or so (except this weekend).
the point Neil, is that they didnt really need to mention a 'small probability' more than two weeks away. according to an article in the strat thread, their 'cold probablity' forecast from mid jan onwards was initially based on strat developments. maybe they see something else on the horizon from this source ??
Possibly, although I can't see it myself (story of my season LOL)(I have no doubt that early March can deliver but it needs to be that extra bit special and at the moment nothing suggests anything other than average to mild conditions from Monday.
What can you say, but merely hope..
LOL - How confusing! "Above average", "below average", "small probability of it being well below," "then similar milder nights", followed by "around average," then "slightly above, small chance of cold etc"!?? - There is no clear signal!?
Putting aside the rhetoric - That above forecast shows a lot of uncertainty with little signal for warm or cold, dry or wet weather etc, especially the way it has been stated "Mild nights most likely with some cooler ones and some chance of it being rather cold!"
Edited by user 17 February 2012 23:32:38(UTC)
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