Hopefully not to late for this one. I think it will be much colder than last year can i go for 9.33c.
Ok we are definitely closed on this one now. Thanks for all the entries, 58 in total. Good luck to everyone.
Thanks again GW
Cheers Global for including the late entries!
A Thanks from me too
A warm start to the year. We are over 1C above average. That will not last long though as Feb will come in below average.
Febraury ended up cooler than average but not by much considering the first two weeks had a mean below zero.
For the year as a whole we are now just 0.45C above the 1971-2000 mean
It will be interesting to see what this warm March has done for the annual CET to date.
IMBY, the mean has been hurled up to 6.18°C after bottoming out at 4.92°C following the below average February.
Only 2007 and 2008 were warmer at this stage, and amazingly they both had the same mean to the end of March; 6.72°C.
2012 CET stands at 5.89C up to 31 March. This is 0.97C above average.
This is nothing unusual as there have been many warmer starts to the year in the past 25 years including 1989, 1990, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2007 and 2008
The 2012 CET now stands at 6.22C. We are still 0.5C above average for the year as a whole.
Wonder how this will look after a largely average May and pretty cool June?
Little overall change in May thanks to the very warm final week. Still about 0.5C above average. That will come down a bit this month.
A cool June means we are now just 0.3C above the 1971-2000 mean for the year as whole. Compared to the 1981-2010 mean we are actually now 0.01C below average.
Another well below average month and we are now only just above the 1971-2000 mean by 0.1C and are 0.2C below the 1981-2010 mean.
Those who predicted below 10C (and there were not many) are looking in good shape right now. But still plenty of time for things to change. We might get a very warm Autumn.
My annual mean temperature stands at 10.6°C up to 27th August.
This is interesting, because the only year with a lower mean than that to this point in my records from 2003 is my current coldest year, 2010, which was at 10.17°C on 31st August.
That year saw a near average autumn and then a very cold December. For 2012 to have a lower annual mean would require a notably cold autumn; even if December had the same mean as 2010 (which would be mind-boggling to say the least), the autumn mean would need to be 8.8°C, 1.6°C below average, in order to math the 2010 annual mean.
An august like that is not out of the question, especially with some of the current long range model indications, but of course the December mean could easily be a great deal higher than -0.33°C this year! If December was average (5°C), then autumn would have to have had a mean of just 7°C in order for the annual mean to match 2010!
I realise that this analysis is not as relevant as that for the CET region that GW can perform, but I reckon my location serves as a reasonable reflection of conditions in the rural south this year. It's often not far from the CET either, for example August is looking to finish up at just under 17.0°C so around half a degree above the final CET if GW's estimate verifies.
I wonder, has Autumn ever had a mean 3.4°C below the average in the CET region...?
Coldest Autumns on record were 1676 and 1786 both with a mean of 7.5C (2.83C below the 1971-2000 mean)
No real change this month as August was only fractionally above average. So we remain just above the 1971-2000 mean but just below the 1981-2010 mean