Now, that just goes to show what a strange year it's been and how the annual CET can turn out even with a cool summer. It's almost as though all the seasons are rolling into one.
Latest stats for the annual CET after another warm month
If the November CET were to come in around 9C and December was say average at 5C then the annual CET would be just under 10.6C.If December were to come in well above average then the annual CET could get up to around 10.7C while a chilly December could see the CET drop to around 10.45C.So as things stand right now I would say anyone who has predicted between 10.45C and 10.70C is in with a reasonable chance still. Looking back at the table on page 1 then that would mean.........nobody!Looks like Martyn is going to win this competition by default unless we get another perishing December. In fact he could win this competition and the other annual competition for lowest cumulative CET errors by month. That would be some double. Theoretically anyone with a prediction down to 10.00C could still win with a very cold December but it would be amazing if we saw something similar to last year.
10.18 would be nice please
Have any summers in years which have averaged 10c+ been colder than this year's summer?
Edited by user 20 November 2011 15:19:04(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
No
Only one year comes close and in fact had exactly the same summer CET as this year (give or take the odd thousandth of a degree) which is 1948. However, 1948 only just came in above 10C whereas this year we will be well above.
1948 summer CET 14.813C, annual CET 10.03C2011 summer CET 14.815C
Humm, so is this likely to be the year with the least variation of monthly CET in the CET record? Answering my own question perhaps not if there has been a persisitently cold or average year?
So, which year has had the least variation in monthly CET's - warmest to coldest?
Edited by user 20 November 2011 21:36:28(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
This year the variation in CET's is 11.3C. That is on the low side but nothing exceptional. In fact 2007 saw a variation of just 10.5C which is one of the lowest.
The winning year is 1974 with a variation of just 9.8C, the only year less than 10C. Coldest month was February with 5.4C and the warmest July and August with 15.2C.
The year with the biggest variation was 1947 with 20.5C, the only year above 20C. A cold February with -1.9C and a very warm August with 18.6C.
Cheers!
So assuming the November CET finishes around 9.6C we would need a December CET of 2.7C for the final CET to come in around 10.43C (i.e. the highest prediction in the competition which was made by Martyn). Looks like most of us were caught out to some degree by thinking this year would be another relatively cool year.
Here is the updated picture to the end of November. The CET now stands at 11.16C which is almost 1C above the 1971-2000 average. 7 months have now been above average this year, 5 of them well above.
Currently on course for the fourth warmest CET on record. Could easily end in second place if December is reasonably mild.
Edited by user 02 December 2011 21:39:44(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Just looked at the first few pages of this thread and some people were totally off the mark! No exceptional cold Feb or very hot June..
No need to wait until the end of the year. I can announce now that the winner of this competition is........ nobody! In fact nobody came close.
The final CET will be somewhere just above 10.7C. The closest prediction was that of Martyn but even he will be 0.3C out. Nevertheless that is still a very good prediction particularly after such a cold year last year tempted most people to go cold again. So well done to Martyn - particularly as it looks like he will probably win the other CET competiton as well.
So, it well done Martyn and the second warmest CET on record?
Thanks guys ..... although the other CET competition is still very close and the outcome is uncertain.
Great call Martyn! Well done!
Final CET for 2011 finished at 10.71 which is 0.93C above the 1971-2000 average. 2nd warmest year ever in the CET series.
8 of the 12 months in 2011 were above average with only the three summer months and January below average.
Edited by user 01 January 2012 11:33:53(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Thanks for another great competition GW!!
It's really hard to believe we've just had the second warmest year on record but I think that's because summer was so cool and we tend to associate warmth with summer. We had an amazing Spring and camping in a tent at Easter has never been so enjoyable with temperatures we'd have been happy with in summer! Some fantastic weather over the past few months in terms of stats and records!