Technically last winter was near average, I thought?
I think it was well below average, though not quite as cold as 2009/10.
Last winter was about 1.3C below average and the one before about 2C below IIRC
Thanks - I couldn't remember the details.
Winter 2011 mean temperature anomaly
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/16/2011_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
Winter 2010 mean temperature anomaly
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/16/2010_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
Winter 2009 mean temperature anomaly
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/16/2009_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
Winter 2008 mean temperature anomaly
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2008/16/2008_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
Next winter is an easy call IMO because historically we never get 4 cold winters in a row, not in the last 100 years anyway.
If this winter is cold then we really have seen a shift back to Maunder Minimum conditions but I doubt this will happen.
We could have an average winter but a cold one is very unlikely.
Andy
Andy an example of four cold winters (ie below average CET DJF) in a row.
1962 3.6,1963 -0.3,1964 3.5,1965 3.3.
Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.
Jiries I was simply, theoretically, using this scenario as an example for LRFs. I was not saying we have or will have certain types of weather.
Yes I know but when you mentioned solar stuff, it triggered me why it allowing such strong widespread heat over N America atm and not us?
Surely that's to do with the jetstream? I saw that the western side of North America is having a cool summer - varying solar input may have an effect on the jetstream. During active solar years the jet flows in such a way that seems to favour mild winters and hot summers here yet when we were having our mild winters that certainly wasn't the case in the US. Of course it's a lot more complicated than that and there are many other factors that come into play, however given the sudden change over the last few years combined with lower solar activity that would at the very least suggest some sort of a link.
Edited by user 26 July 2011 07:28:02(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Re solar infuence conclusion of article by MIke Lockwood et al on solar influence on European winters.Key sentence "there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean differs by several degrees between high and low -solar terciles"
"We demonstrate that open solar flux (Fs, derivable from geomagnetic data) exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventionally-used measures of solar activity. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic/Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is stronger and simpler for Fs, being more linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, especially in high-solar conditions. This distinct signature may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms."
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif
Latest seasonal maps -NOAA continuing to show cold autumn and early winter for Europe and UK.If anything trend is moving towards cold.
Edited by user 03 August 2011 10:15:50(UTC) | Reason: Not specified
Why do I have this feeling that Spring will arrive even earlier in 2012 ..... ?
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2011/anomnight.7.7.2011.gif
Latest SST's. I am not an axpert on the interpretation of these.However the belt cold water persists across ther Atalantic from Newfoundland eastward.What might it mean for winter.?
With fuel prices through the roof and the economy in s**t street I think a large %age of the poulation would be more than happy with a mild winter
Including me
I'm certainly hoping for a mild winter. It'll have to come at the expense of a wet one too one would imagine, but I'd take that as well. We've had winters here in the not too distant past where we've only had the odd one or two frosts. That's what I'm hoping for this time around
I agree with you Matty,and if that happens it "might" set up a good summer
Agreed and it will help to bring back proper summers with some occasional hot spells like before and to end the heat and dryness in Spring time. I like the cold winter if provided snow every now and then with deep cold but rather not to have a cold winter with continuous cold rain, nothingless weather and 1 snowy event in whole winter time. Thanks but no thanks, they can go away.
Oh i certainly hope this year is a cold snowy one. We got the cold last winter in my location but precious little in the way of snow !!
Was similar here. We had two dustings last winter and that was it. Winter, the worst season in the UK, compounded by a lack of the ONLY thing that makes it remotely bearable. That's why I'd much rather just have a mild and damp one. We're kind of due one, so fingers crossed
It would be ironic if the winter was much milder than last winter, but had more days with snow falling for the majority of us.
I'd take that one, Gav