It has been suggested that it would be a good idea to put this in its own thread so we can keep it separate from the ongoing commentary on how the January CET is progressing.
In addition to the monthly CET competition (which has its own annual element) we are also this year running a separate competition to predict what the CET for the whole of 2011 will be. Details of the monthly competition can be found in the January CET thread. I should point out there are no prizes for these competitions (other than the kudos of beating your fellow posters) they are just for fun.
For the annual CET competition you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2011. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.
More details on what constitutes the CET area can be found about half way down the page at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/about/archives.html
To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2011 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and- your prediction needs to be unique so we only have one winner at the end of the year.
Please therefore pick a figure not already selected. Below is a table showing all the predictions so far at the time of this post (but not including any subsequent predictions below so please check these as well). In the table each colour simply represents successive ranges of 0.25C above or below the long run mean in green and has no other significance.
To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line).
The competition will be open for entries until the end of 9 January (this Sunday).
We will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year.
I have now added in my prediction which is 9.42C.
FINAL TABLE - 66 ENTRIES
Edited by user 27 December 2011 12:56:22(UTC)
| Reason: Stickying
Somehow we've got to keep this thread away from Brians pruning or it'll go the way of all my fog watch threads.
Edited by user 04 January 2011 21:46:14(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
I noticed recently that someone (I think it was YD) managed to dredge up the November CET thread and make a new post. No idea how he did that as it had long since dropped off the four pages of the forum that I can see. Must ask him where he found it - maybe some old threads can still be recovered?
Yes, I saw that. I'd like to know what the secret is as well.
Hi - could I have 9.69 please
9.31 for me please - thanks.
Complete tho - no real clue!
I'll go for 9.35C
Thanks GW. Much better to have its own thread but we must keep posting to it or bumping it.
Can I go for 9.83C please.
I'll go for 10.15
I'll go with 10.43 please
Unlike the monthly comp, GW is trying to prevent duplications in the annual comp to allow for an outright winner.
Edited by user 05 January 2011 13:28:41(UTC)
| Reason: Not specified
GW - two posts copied over from the monthly CET thread......
lanky Posted : 05 January 2011 15:25:11 Ooh just seen this annual comp I'll go for plenty of warmth ths year 10.22C Martin Richmond, Surrey
Surrey John Posted : 05 January 2011 15:32:38 Can I try 9.19c for the annual competition please Kingston upon Thames 15m ASL
GW, another one from the January CET thread..
Thanks Caz. I will try and keep an eye on both threads so we don't miss any.
Please note I am now automatically amending any duplicate prediction to the nearest available figure that has not been taken as I don't have time to follow up individually in each case.
Updated table will be posted above shortly with all the current entries.
Originally posted in the January CET thread and copied here as requested:
Ooh just seen this annual comp
I'll go for plenty of warmth ths year