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Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

Last post 08-21-2008 12:58 PM by Ulric. 11 replies.
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  • 08-20-2008 10:53 AM , Post ID 565,688

    Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    I have a lot of old weather articles that I haven't fully looked at yet and I stumbled across this that I have and I nearly fell off my chair when I read it.

    Could this be the earliest or one of the earliest known examples of someone putting a theory that increase carbon burning may be contributing to rising temperatures?

    The date 23rd February 1873


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  • 08-20-2008 11:06 AM , Post ID 565,696 In reply to

    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Thats rather a daring theory. I bet Mr Taylor looked back and laughed at his letter a few years later when the temperatures began to go in the other direction.
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  • 08-20-2008 11:14 AM , Post ID 565,704 In reply to

    • Pingo
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    I wonder if he excused himself with natural variation.

    Met Office - Will you publicly abandon your theory and ideas should the prediction fail? As you must in scientific work.

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  • 08-20-2008 11:16 AM , Post ID 565,705 In reply to

    • TomC
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    The first scientific paper I am aware of is this one:

    'On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" by Svante Arrhenius in 1896
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  • 08-20-2008 11:16 AM , Post ID 565,706 In reply to

    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Unfortunately this article isn't saying CO2 is causing rising temps - I think he is implying it is due to the heating of the 'whole' air by all burning coal and gas, in other words a gigantic urban heat effect.

     

    Tim W, Warminster 150 m a.s.l.
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  • 08-20-2008 12:28 PM , Post ID 565,781 In reply to

    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Warmintim:

    Unfortunately this article isn't saying CO2 is causing rising temps - I think he is implying it is due to the heating of the 'whole' air by all burning coal and gas, in other words a gigantic urban heat effect.

    Indeed. We didn't have satellites then did we..... oWink

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  • 08-20-2008 1:03 PM , Post ID 565,797 In reply to

    • Edicius81
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    even so, I think it was an incredibly advanced insight for the time. Great find Kev :)

    TWO Awards running now... Most pessimistic poll being counted now... Look out for the top ramper award, coming soon!!

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  • 08-20-2008 1:37 PM , Post ID 565,815 In reply to

    • Ulric
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Warmintim:

    Unfortunately this article isn't saying CO2 is causing rising temps - I think he is implying it is due to the heating of the 'whole' air by all burning coal and gas, in other words a gigantic urban heat effect.

    Arrhenius' work suggests a link between CO2 and temperature but does not link CO2 levels to fossil fuel burning.

    "Arrhenius’s paper is the first to quantify the contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect (Sections I-IV) and to speculate about whether variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide have contributed to long-term variations in climate (Section V). Throughout this paper, Arrhenius refers to carbon dioxide as "carbonic acid" in accordance with the convention at the time he was writing.

    Contrary to some misunderstandings, Arrhenius does not explicitly suggest in this paper that the burning of fossil fuels will cause global warming, though it is clear that he is aware that fossil fuels are a potentially significant source of carbon dioxide (page 270), and he does explicitly suggest this outcome in later work. "
    Before using these arguments, people should ask a few questions:

    1) Would I use them in front of experts in the field and be expected to be taken seriously?
    2) Forget the science for a second: does this reasoning make logical sense and is it contradictory with other views I hold?
    3) Is it likely that experts in the field for a long time have missed out on this piece of information, or forgot about something so important?
    • Post Points: 5

  • 08-20-2008 4:23 PM , Post ID 565,886 In reply to

    • Ulric
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Here is an interesting quote from MoreGrumbineScience

     The greenhouse effect's existence was discovered by Fourier in 1827. Namely, the surface of the earth is too warm unless something else were going on -- as we found in our simplest climate model. Digressing a second, Fourier realized this even though it was more than 30 years before anyone knew that there were greenhouse gases. Tyndall published his experiments, that showed water vapor (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) among others to be greenhouse gases in 1861. Conservation of energy is a very powerful law -- you can reach the conclusion even if you don't know how, exactly, it comes about.

     

    Source: MoreGrumbineScience

    A reference to the work of Tyndall on Wikipedia

    and Fouriers discovery of the greenhouse effect.

    Before using these arguments, people should ask a few questions:

    1) Would I use them in front of experts in the field and be expected to be taken seriously?
    2) Forget the science for a second: does this reasoning make logical sense and is it contradictory with other views I hold?
    3) Is it likely that experts in the field for a long time have missed out on this piece of information, or forgot about something so important?
    • Post Points: 5

  • 08-21-2008 11:09 AM , Post ID 566,430 In reply to

    • Ulric
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    I found a translation of the original 1827 paper by Fourier.

     

    http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/fourier_1827/fourier_1827.html

     

    and a description of Tyndalls work

    http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/general/history/JTyndall_biog_doc.pdf

    The solar heat possesses. . . the power of crossing an atmosphere; but,

    when the heat is absorbed by the planet, it is so changed in quality that

    the rays emanating from the planet cannot get with the same freedom

    back into space. Thus the atmosphere admits of the entrance of the solar

    heat, but checks its exit; and the result is a tendency to accumulate heat

    at the surface of the planet. —Tyndall

    What a nice succinct description!
    Before using these arguments, people should ask a few questions:

    1) Would I use them in front of experts in the field and be expected to be taken seriously?
    2) Forget the science for a second: does this reasoning make logical sense and is it contradictory with other views I hold?
    3) Is it likely that experts in the field for a long time have missed out on this piece of information, or forgot about something so important?
    • Post Points: 20

  • 08-21-2008 11:22 AM , Post ID 566,444 In reply to

    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Ulric:

    What a nice succinct description!

    But, what about TOA equilibrium. Stick out tongue

    FOR 2009: DO YOU CONCEDE THE POINT? WE CAN THEN MOVE ON?
    • Post Points: 20

  • 08-21-2008 12:58 PM , Post ID 566,510 In reply to

    • Ulric
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    Re: Earliest known theory that CO2 could be causing rising temperatures?

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    Waterspout:
    But, what about TOA equilibrium.

     

    At that early date, I'm prepared to forgive him for not mentioning it.

    Among his most striking discoveries were the

    vast differences in the abilities of “perfectly

    colorless and invisible gases and vapours” to

    absorb and transmit radiant heat. The

    “elementary gases,” oxygen, nitrogen, and

    hydrogen, were almost transparent to radiant

    heat, while more complex molecules, even in

    very small quantities, absorb much more

    strongly than the atmosphere itself.

     

    Quite enough on it's own I think!!
    Before using these arguments, people should ask a few questions:

    1) Would I use them in front of experts in the field and be expected to be taken seriously?
    2) Forget the science for a second: does this reasoning make logical sense and is it contradictory with other views I hold?
    3) Is it likely that experts in the field for a long time have missed out on this piece of information, or forgot about something so important?
    • Post Points: 5
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