We did at one point have a thread for forum members to put up thier forecasts - thought it might be an idea to kick this off again. I think its fair for anyone to have a stab, and if you want to go from gut feel only, go for it - if you want to back up forecasts with reasoning, then thats great and we can all learn..

 This thread may fall along the wayside - I'll bump it up a few times, but it'll be fun to look back and verify. Please note this is just for fun, not a thread for atempting to prove others wrong - if someones telling you your outcome wasnt correct, then maybe ask other users to verify.. the more specific or measurable you make your forecast, the easier this'll be to do obviousely.

I wont run this thread, as im a bit backward and its not necessary anyway, but I will take it on myself to award a Kudos point to the best forecast each monday if theres one that stands out... forecasts in Italic please

FORECAST: OK - ill throw something in the pot to get us started - less of a breakdown from the current spell, and a hot plume around next wednesday, bringing temps into the low 30's. REASONING: I think the Scandi high will inflate more than modeled across europe, and more importantly - I want to see 30c+ this summer...

  Sam, Cirencester

p.s. Mods feel free to move/delete this if you want -

Most of Ralph Malphs posts should be in here based on the M.O. posts we've seen

Its a good idea Sam. Should be stickied

Okay anyone up for a forecast for me? We're off to Cornwall for a week on Saturday...yes i know this week would've been better weatherwise but hey ho.... please tell me its not gonna be too bad..pllllease

I suspect something like;

Sat: Thundery rain to start, then sunny and fresher with showers.

Sun: Very warm and sunny, thundery showers late in the day.

Mon: Thundery showers or longer spells of thundery rain.

Tue: Thundery showers.

Wed: Mainly dry and warm.

Thu: Showers, cool.

Fri: Showers, cool.

Bearing in mind this is all very low confidence, etc...

Sevendust:

Most of Ralph Malphs posts should be in here based on the M.O. posts we've seen

Its a good idea Sam. Should be stickied

Someone call?

Thankyou

So thundery and warm mainly atm

Lol - looks like its only me interested in putting up a forecast on this thread have a stab you lot, come on - I cant post forecasts on my own at the top of the forum as I'll look like a right a**...

Anyway - back on the 21st ...

FORECAST: OK - ill throw something in the pot to get us started - less of a breakdown from the current spell, and a hot plume around next wednesday, bringing temps into the low 30's. REASONING: I think the Scandi high will inflate more than modeled across europe, and more importantly - I want to see 30c+ this summer...

Could it be ??? http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

I'm fairly new to this weather stuff..but lloking at the GFS charts am I looking at the yellow and red colours for the Warmth ? If so it clips us but them moves away East.??

 Next week the warm spell continues and will become increasingly Humid yet again with Heavy Showers moving in and Temps reamining Mid 20's+ with the hottest temps looking to be next Thursday and Friday where we could see the first 30*c+ of the year. Let's keep in mind though we did think this about this week and at present only threatend to go get near 30*c...so far !!

What was first thoughi of the breakdown bringing in Fresher Air looks to of vanished, Sunday for here especially could be the hottest so far reaching 27*c but with heavy showrs so could be fun trying to BBQ.

This is why I don't forcaste   Now I have seen Two Different reports from MetOffice and BBC is different aswell.

Firstly

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Scattered heavy showers or thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, but with warm spells of hazy sunshine too. More general rain is expected on Tuesday.

Updated: 1538 on Fri 25 Jul 2008

Secondly

Now when I go to the Map and click for the saem area (South East) It shows the weather symbols as Sunday Sunny Intervals and Light Shower and the same for Monday...no signs of heavy rain or thunderstorms.

Now on the BBC it shows one thing for my area on the front page (my homepage) and then when you clikc to go it stats another..One says Sunny and Clear the other saus Light Showers and Sunny Intervals.

 I know forecasting is hard, but it does annoy me when the same company states two different things.

Especially when a BBQ is planned

Met Office have issued severe weather warmings for Monday and Teusday for the South-East

Monday - Tuesday

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting southwest and central southern England and south Wales. There is the potential for rainfall accumulations of 25 mm quite widely as a band of heavy and thundery rain pushes northwards during the afternoon and evening. Isolated totals of 50 mm are possible in places.

Issued at: 1048 Sun 27 Jul

Kent not issued in these warnings

Hooray Kent now stated in these warnings for Tuesday.

It's looking like it won't freshen the air though because Wednesday,Thursday and Friday still showing temps in the mid 20's. Rain is also expected on Thursday which also is due to be raining heavily so I presume it will be very Humid still and with this it may bring a few more storms.

I predict the early part of the Weekend to remian dry but there is a chance of some Showers later on Sunday.

Well not wirth a Kudos point as there was no real reasoning posted with this, but still - its turned out allright.

Made 21/7/08: 

FORECAST: OK - ill throw something in the pot to get us started - less of a breakdown from the current spell, and a hot plume around next wednesday, bringing temps into the low 30's. REASONING: I think the Scandi high will inflate more than modeled across europe, and more importantly - I want to see 30c+ this summer...

I think we're nearly at the point where this needs to be de-stickied due to lack of interest, and a rating of one! but still - I challenge you all - make a forecast!!!

P.S. Interesting reading Jonesey, but it'd be good to keep this thread solely for members forecasts & verification...

anvilhead:

 

P.S. Interesting reading Jonesey, but it'd be good to keep this thread solely for members forecasts & verification...

 Oh ok sorry...good luck with the thread !!

Here's my stab at a forecast - gave me something to do for 30 mins I've based it on Wednesday's 12Z ECM run, and precip charts that I found on TWO

Friday

The calm after the storms! Hopefully we’ll all have had a worthy breakdown to the current humid weather, and by that I mean some proper downpours and thunderstorms.

As a result of this breakdown, the air behind will be cooler and fresher, coming in from the west or southwest. It’s pretty much your standard sunshine and showers day for the majority of the UK, barring the northern half of Scotland and most of Northern Ireland, where Thursday nights rain is likely to be. The showers over England and Wales could be heavy with thunder, but any thunderstorms that do occur will be isolated affairs. Cooler temperatures all round, but still pretty respectable the further south and east you are, up to 23/24C. Elsewhere temps will range from 18-22C. Overnight showers will die out, with patchy rain still a possibility around northern and western coasts. A fresher night is in store for all, with temperatures down into the low to mid teens for many.

Saturday

Saturday will be more unsettled than Friday, with showers or longer spells of rain for many areas, the showers occasionally on the heavy side. The best of any dry weather perhaps occurring over the Western Isles of Scotland. Winds will be pretty light, from the west. Temperatures likely to be another degree down on Friday’s values, maximums of 18-19C in the north, 20C central, and 21-22C further south. Overnight, more rain is forecast for southern and central areas of England and Wales, with the northern half of the UK escaping with a dry night with clear spells. A mild night for England and Wales under the cloud and rain, with minimum temps typically between 13-15C. Further north, temps will fall a few degrees lower than that.

Sunday

Another unsettled day (poor weekend really!) with more periods of showery rain for Eastern England in particular, where the rain could be very heavy at times. A clearance coming in to the south and west later, with some sunshine coming through, and a small risk of a shower. Scotland will see showers or longer spells of rain, with the northern half of the country standing the best chance of some drier interludes. Northern Ireland will have sunshine and showers. Winds again fairly light and westerly, although breezy in any heavier falls of rain. Temperature values very similar to Saturday, with the maximums likely to be in the low 20’s in any afternoon sunshine further south. In the north, it will feel quite cool in the showers, with maximums struggling to 18-19C, and a degree or so cooler on western coasts. Overnight the showers will clear away to the east, and most will enjoy a dry night with clear spells, and minimum temps will range from 10-15C nationwide, always warmest in the towns and cities further south.

That sounds like it came off pretty well there Steve .

 Here's my forecast for August - A warm thundery weekend next weekend (10th>) followed by a cool showery breakdown, then a more static pattern bringing heat from the 15th onwards for approx 7 days. Much cooler for the last week of of the month ..

Sam, Cirencester