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Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Last post 12-04-2008 7:36 PM by Charmhills. 292 replies.
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Snowaddict
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Both the GFS and ECM runs this evening are mouthwatering. And speaking of an easterly development towards the final third of the month...
25th of December.... Latest GFS output...
Merry Christmas to one and all.
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Yorkie
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
 Charmhills:
squish:
Now theres a chart with stack loads of potential ! High building into Scandy, would still be along way to go before really cold air flooded the UK, but that chart would be a big step on the way.
GFS has been playing around with an easterly on and off for a week, first time I have seen this from ECM I think.
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Andy Woodcock
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
That ECM at +168 is a corker but I await the rest of the run HOWEVER ECM has been hinted at a Atlantic/Scandy High link up for days so come on lads one last push
Andy
Plumpton, Penrith, Cumbria 445 feet asl
"While holding scientific research & discovery in respect, we must always be alert to the danger that public policy could become a captive of a scientific-technological elite"
President Dwight D. Eisenhower 17th January 1961
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Andy Woodcock
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Yep, the rest of the run is good as well and would give some very cold weather under clear skies:
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif
If the ECM verifies we will be looking at the coldest first half of December since 1995.
Andy
Plumpton, Penrith, Cumbria 445 feet asl
"While holding scientific research & discovery in respect, we must always be alert to the danger that public policy could become a captive of a scientific-technological elite"
President Dwight D. Eisenhower 17th January 1961
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Charmhills
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Andy Woodcock:
Yep, the rest of the run is good as well and would give some very cold weather under clear skies:
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1921.gif
If the ECM verifies we will be looking at the coldest first half of December since 1995.
Andy
Yes a very interesting ECM 12z tonight.
 Duane Loughborough North Leic/East Midlands. The sun becomes the father and the father becomes the sun.
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Whether Idle
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
I am always cautious about anything post 120h BUT the ECM at 168h has an air of feasibility about it IMHO. Time will tell, of course...maybe something beastly is coming this way? One has to also accept the liklihood of a near miss, as so much has to fall into place for the UK to get a decent easterly, and even then they aint as cold as they used to be.
Them there postage stamps from the ECM look interesting too.
WI
5 m asl Dover Kent
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
MLM:
Brian Gaze:
Continuing to look good all round IMO. No idea where some of the disappointment in here has come from in the last 48 hours. Remember it's early December not late Feb.
GFS = Ok but no snow real snow risk in the <180hr range
METO = Toppler
Not ideal for mid December
Hi,
Are you able to explain how you came to that conclusion to the benefit of all?
The GFS ensembles indicate possible sub -5C air for a time next week, so I would say that their always a risk of snow somewhere in the country.
The models remain good and we have all been spoilt recently, I certainly feel compared to recent Decembers they are indeed ideal. As others have taken the time to explain, I am encouraged that there are alot of postive solutions being considered. 
Mark Hackett
Camden Town - North-West London
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sam1879
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Brian Gaze:
ECM is something of an 80s style classic tonight. 
Indeed
Sam, Glasgow, Scotland; 20m ASL (bad attitude, sorry altitude!)
Red sky at night, too much streetlight!
"Climate is messy"
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David M Porter
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Brian Gaze:
ECM is something of an 80s style classic tonight.
Ah, the 80s! The Falklands, Mrs Thatcher, leg warmers, Rubix cubes, Terry and June....
Sorry, off topic.
"It's not just the goal mouth on fire. It's the whole stadium".
John Motson, during Italy v Brazil match, 1982 World Cup
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Brian Gaze: ECM is something of an 80s style classic tonight.
Certainly is, but I wonder will these charts materialise?? I sure hope so. Interesting period of model watching up ahead, and maybe a period of very interesting weather.
Merry Christmas to one and all.
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Ian Brown
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Interesting ECM but the one thing the models are consistent on are low heights to the NW in their longer range output, and if it's the Scandi High versus the Polar Vortex - there is only one winner in the modern era.
Modern Winter Legends No.2 - The Bartlett
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1988/Rrea00119881228.gif
'you're hot and you're cold, you're in and you're out, you're up and your down'' - Katy Perry gives her view on the GFS
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Charmhills
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Ian Brown:
Interesting ECM but the one thing the models are consistent on are low heights to the NW in their longer range output, and if it's the Scandi High versus the Polar Vortex - there is only one winner in the modern era.
Modern era
Duane Loughborough North Leic/East Midlands. The sun becomes the father and the father becomes the sun.
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mbrothers
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
i think ive spotted something chilly t+180000000000000000000000000000hrs. sorry gone mad cos all weve had in cornwall this winter is cold drizzle! getting jealous!!!!!
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Re: Model Output Discussion 02/12/08 - 1654.
Almost there but not quite would be the words I'd use for tonights model output. I think we've seen from past debacles just how difficult it is to get a good easterly but where as with the others we were relying on lots of changes to all culminate in one big snowfest there are already several pieces of the jigsaw in place.
Low heights continue to be programmed over central and southern europe and these are consistently shown across all output and ensembles, the jet still remains amplified and even when the PV sets up shop still no sign of the horror bartlett.
Given a chance pressure wants to rise to the ne we just need events over the eastern seaboard to play ball and hold back that PV towards the west of greenland and then game on. Regardless still no sign of any mild dross and given recent winters thats a victory in itself.
There is a growing trend in the gefs ensembles to develop those sub -10 850s to the east and we should bear in mind also that many easterlies are not often shown up at the latter stages of output but often get picked up on suddenly within the 180hrs timeframe. If this is to be the case then we should see this develop quickly over the next few runs.
Its still of course a longshot but given the late autumn and winter so far surely the trend is good, hopefully!
Now SW France, foothills of the Pyrenees.
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