Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

WI

It's almost as if someone programmed this run especially for all the cold and snow lovers in the U.K. to say "this is what you could get". It would be difficult to programme a better run and I suspect it will be the best operational model run we will see for a very long time. I hope in a way I'm wrong but it's rather out of line with recent output!

Indeed!

At least the run is also improved in the medium range.

What I'm looking for is direct southerly WAA up to Greenland in the more reliable timeframe, and the cold will likely follow. 

Just as the euros want to sink GFS now wants to maintain ridging. Crucial period is 120-144hrs. Hopefully the UKMO 00z is wrong

Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

 

WI

The 00z ECM extended ensembles suggested quite a few runs of the likes of the 06z. The 06z GEFS will be interesting to see how much support there is.

Hmm tricky development from Atlantic HP to Iceland HP to ScandiHP to Greenland HP.Lots of things can go wrong en route but it finishes with the best op run of the winter. 

Just as the euros want to sink GFS now wants to maintain ridging. Crucial period is 120-144hrs. Hopefully the UKMO 00z is wrong

 

The UKMO run is not bad, it just stops at a rather unfortunate time point. Run it on to 168hr and it looks more positive (with high pressure in the North Atlantic to our west)

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2016/2016122900/gfs2.2016123112.060.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

 

The UKMO run is not bad, it just stops at a rather unfortunate time point. Run it on to 168hr and it looks more positive (with high pressure in the North Atlantic to our west)

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2016/2016122900/gfs2.2016123112.060.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

I like that T+168 chart. WAA heading north. 

Control coming out

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-0-96.png

Should be a severe frost on News Years Day night if its not cloudy

The GFS 6Z is insane.

Frankly, that was a rogue run. 

  If we can get this within 5 days then Winter Nirvana awaits. Cant see it happening, sorry.

 As Doc says, disregard, dismiss.  More runs needed.

 

WI

The GFS 6Z is insane.

Mild outlier? 

HaHa -6 during the day. It won't happen I'll tell ya
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn37217.gif

That is perfectly possible - The likes of that happened in February 1895.

 

That is my ultimate cold spell IMBY.  Ain't gonna happen again.

Interestingly, the New Year high pressure set-up was a long Atlantic-Greenland link, not entirely unlike this year's forecast set up.

But that high then moved up to the Norwegian sea, which opened the Easterly floodgates from 4th, whereas this year's is due to collapse south, meaning we have to depend on secondary lows migrating south in that NW'ly, more like what happened to kick off the 1890 freeze on 23rd November.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

Edit: sorry- the link defaults to Dec 2015; the chart selector offers the dates I mentioned. If anybody knows how to ctrl + c specific links to old wetterzentrale charts I'd be glad to know

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016122906/gens-0-1-138.png

Control similar to the Op so far. But this is the crucial moment