The earliest date on which 30°C was recorded in the UK was in 1945. On 12th May 1945 the temperature reached 30.6°C in Camden Square, London. Also, 30.0°C was reported in Greenwich, London.
Therefore, if 30°C were to be reached on 1st May, it would break the existing record by almost two weeks.
Most computer models have shown peak values of around 27°C to 29°C. However, the high-resolution regional models rather than the global ones, run by the UK Met Office and Météo-France, have both indicated that 30°C could be reached or exceeded.
Therefore, if all computer model outputs are treated equally it would suggest that 30°C is unlikely. However, the high-resolution models are generally more accurate, especially when assessing small-scale local variations. An objective assessment of the likelihood would probably conclude that the chance of it happening is around 30%.
Does the unusual early season warmth give any pointers towards the summer ahead? Not really, but if the tendency for high pressure to persist continues, the chance of some very hot periods would likely be significantly higher than normal. Dry ground will encourage temperatures to rise quickly and the seas around the UK are warmer than average.
If not now we may need to wait a while
Although short term forecast details remain somewhat uncertain, the medium range trends are fairly well established. Computer models agree that a much cooler air mass will move down across the UK, leading to lower temperatures during the Bank Holiday weekend. Beyond that temperatures rise again, but currently there isn’t a signal for very warm conditions to return during the first half of May.
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