The dry period has been the result of high pressure remaining close to the UK for an extended period. It has blocked the flow of low pressure areas and their associated weather fronts from moving in from the Atlantic. That is all set to change as pressure falls and a much more changeable pattern becomes established.
As a result the risk of showers, longer spells of rain and strong winds will increase. Of course even during unsettled spells drier interludes can be expected. Additionally, there are indications that low pressure areas will be relatively slow moving, rather than progressing swiftly eastwards or northeastwards, as is often the case. That means the possibility of large regional variations in the weather is increased.
The forecast chart below from the ECMWF medium range model shows an area of low pressure close to the United Kingdom on Good Friday. Heavy showers or longer spells of rain are spreading northwards to affect most areas at times. However, if correct, parts of eastern England could remain drier and warmer. East Anglia may well see the best of the weather.
It is still too early to pinpoint the details, but other models indicate that areas of low pressure will continue to influence the weather through the rest of the Easter period. Therefore, further wet and possibly windy spells can be expected.
There are indications that high pressure to the north may begin to exert more influence later on. If that happens, the driest conditions could become focused on the northern half of the UK by Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. However, a brisk and chilly east or northeasterly wind may develop in those areas.
The graphics below show the percentage chance of rain at six-hour intervals in London and Inverness, starting on Good Friday and ending on Bank Holiday Monday. Initially drier conditions (indicated by the light grey shading) are slightly more favoured in London, but later on they become more likely in Inverness. That aligns with the pattern of high pressure building to the north of the UK.
Although confidence is growing that the Easter period will bring mixed weather, it is still too early to pin down the details. So, if you're planning outdoor activities the best advice is to stay up to date with short range forecasts and try to remain as flexible as possible.
After the long fine spell the shift to wetter conditions just in time for Easter will feel like rotten timing to many. However, while some parts of the UK could see heavy rain, a nationwide washout currently looks unlikely. Temperatures will generally be lower than recently, but at this time of the year it is likely to feel quite warm when sunny spells develop.
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