The first named storm of the season was Storm Ashley, which hit the UK on 18th October. Since then anticyclonic conditions have often been dominant, leading to long calm, quiet and gloomy periods. However, things have now changed and more mobile weather patterns are returning across north western Europe.
The current northerly air stream is bringing an early taste of winter, but during Friday weather fronts associated with a very deep area of low pressure will start pushing northeastwards across the UK. Their timing is still subject to change, but the general pattern is being consistently modelled.
As the areas of rain bump into the cold air, a period of snow is likely to develop along the boundary zone. Areas most at risk are the north and east of Britain. Heavy snow is possible for a time, particularly over high ground in the north. However, the potential for disruption may be limited due to the relatively fast progress of the milder air, meaning that snow should quite quickly turn back to rain. That said, it is possible that in Scotland the snow could last for a while, particularly over the mountains.
Rather than snow, the main potential for disruption in much of the UK could be from strong winds and heavy rain. The wind chart above suggests gusts of between 50mph and 70mph could affect a wide area on Saturday. The details are still to be firmed up, but there appears to be the potential for this to become the second named storm of the 2024-25 season. If that is so it will be named Bert.
The windy conditions probably continue through Sunday, perhaps with the strongest gusts transferring southwards. Computer models are signalling the possibility of gusts in excess of 50mph in southern Britain.
As the milder air returns, a very steep temperature gradient will develop close to the boundary between air masses. Values could range from 0C to 15C over a distance of less than 50 miles.
As the much milder air pushes norteastwards, lying snow will melt rapidly.
The broadscale pattern is being consistently shown by computer models. Nonetheless, there are differences in the details between them and as the stormy period is several days away, there is still time for change.
Nonetheless, at this stage the possibility of disruptive weather affecting parts of the UK this weekend is high. Therefore, it's important to keep up to date with developments as the time approaches.
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