Winter 2022-23 forecast issued

Colder than average winter possible

By Brian Gaze

Overview

The UK seasonal forecast headline is for winter 2022-23 to be slightly colder and drier than average over the three month period.

The coldest periods are forecast to be in December. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in the longer term as is usual, but particularly regarding the possibility of cold periods in January.

Wintry view across the Bulbourne Valley, Hertfordshire December 2021

Forecast factors

The forecast was produced by looking at a number of factors, including:

• Seasonal forecast models
• Persistence patterns during recent seasons and historical analogues
• ENSO conditions
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
• Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)
• Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)
• Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
• Solar activity
• Autumnal weather patterns and the development of snow cover in Siberia

The Weather Analogue Index (WAI) which was tracked through the autumn months.

Summary

Forecast confidence for winter 2022-23 is low. Seasonal models and recent climatology suggest a milder than average season. Background signals are mixed, but the La Nina, IOD and MJO phases correlate with an increased chance of cold snaps during the first half of the winter.

The WAI has offered a mixed picture recently, but when viewed over the second half of the autumn a number of years with cold or very cold winters were ranking highly.

In conclusion, although a slightly colder than average winter is forecast mild or significantly colder outcomes are considered almost as likely.

TWO winter 2022-23 forecast

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