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Summer 2022 weather forecast

Overview and context


02/06/2022

Overview

The TWO summer 2022 weather forecast covers June, July and August. The headline is for slightly above average temperatures and slightly above normal rainfall.

July is expected to be the warmest of the three months, but overall a very mixed season is being forecast. Thundery outbreaks may occur relatively frequently.

Over the three month period the forecast is for Central England Temperature (CET) to be 0.0C to 1.0C above the average. Precipitation levels of between 95% and 125% are suggested.

Sunny weather near to Salcombe in Devon

Sunny weather near to Salcombe in Devon

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • A number of long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres.
  • Recent climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts 
  • Pattern matching or analogues from previous years     

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often inaccurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can make even short range forecasting very difficult.

Summary

The June headline is for slightly above average temperatures and rain amounts to be close to the average.

July is forecast to bring above average temperatures and slightly above average rainfall.

August temperatures are expected to close to the average, with slightly above normal amounts of rain.

TWO seasonal forecast

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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.