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Early May bank holiday

Weather overview


23/04/2022

Early May bank holiday

The early May bank holiday is on Monday 2nd this year. It is too early to be confident about the weather details. However, ensemble models which are used to determine the probability of different outcomes can give pointers.

Bluebells at Ashridge

Rain or shine?

Through the rest of April a lot of dry weather is expected. There are signs of things beginning to change during the early part of May, but there is uncertainty about the timing of this.

The postage stamp plot below shows the precipitation forecast from all of the individual runs in the GEFS ensemble on the afternoon of May 2nd. At the moment there isn't a clear signal with a split between runs going for wet and dry scenarios.

There have been occasions recently when a transition to more unsettled and wetter conditions has been shown in the medium range only for it to falter as the time approaches. Therefore, confidence in a change taking place through early May is low.

GEFS 00z precipitation forecasts for the Early May bank holiday 2022

 

Warm or cold?

The postage stamp plot below shows the maximum temperature forecasts from all of the individual runs in the GEFS ensemble on the afternoon of May 2nd. 

A wide temperature spread is shown with maximum values in the south ranging from 9C (48F) to 18C (64F). There is a tendency for the GEFS model to underestimate maximums a little, so 20C (68F) at the top end of the range would be a possibility. However, there is nothing particularly warm showing up at the moment with close to average values favoured.

GEFS 00z temperature forecasts for the Early May bank holiday 2022

 

Summary

At this stage there are indications of a transition to more unsettled weather taking place through the early part of May. Nonetheless, forecast confidence is low and there remains a good chance that the settled period we are currently experiencing will continue beyond the bank holiday.

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