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Easter 2022

Weather prospects


06/04/2022

Easter a mixed bag of weather

Easter Sunday falls on April 17th. The weather at this time of year can be very mixed and in April it is often still too cold to sit outdoors for long periods of time, particularly in the northern half of the UK.

Last year Easter Sunday was on April 3rd. The period started off with high pressure dominating, but through Easter Monday very cold Arctic air swept southwards and there were wintry showers in places.

Easter eggs amsterdam" by Rotemdan - Own work. Licensed under Attribution via Wikimedia Commons

Easter 2022 weather outlook

The Easter weekend is still a long way off in weather terms so it is not possible to be confident about the forecast details yet. However, ensemble models which are used to determine the probability of different outcomes can give some pointers.

Wet or dry?

The postage stamp plot below shows the precipitation forecast from all of the individual runs in the GEFS ensemble on Easter Sunday afternoon. At the moment there isn't a clear signal with a split between runs going for wet and dry scenarios.

The most likely outcome appears to be for quite mixed conditions through the Easter period as a whole with the possibility of rain at times.

GEFS 00z precipitation forecasts for Easter Sunday 2022

 

Warm or cold?

The postage stamp plot below shows the maximum temperature forecasts from all of the individual runs in the GEFS ensemble on Easter Sunday. 

Most of them show close to or above average temperatures but a significant minority look rather chilly for the time of the year.

GEFS 00z Easter Sunday 2022 temperature forecasts

 

Summary

At this stage rather changeable weather with close to or above average temperatures is favoured for the Easter period. However, it is too early to be confident about the prospects and there is time for significant change in the forecast.

Latest guidance Update 14/04/202

Computer models suggest a lot of dry weather on Good Friday and Saturday. It will be warm for the time of the year with temperatures close to 22C (72F) in south eastern England.

Through Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday more unsettled weather pushes in from the west. All regions could see showers or longer spells of rain. The wettest conditions are expected to be in the north and the west. There is uncertainty about the eastwards progression of the rain.

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