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News and information

Autumn 2021

Weather prospects



Summer 2021 brought a mixed bag of weather. The extreme heat of recent years was absent in the south east. However, 31.3C was recorded on July 21st at Castlederg, making it the hottest day on record in Northern Ireland.

Mean UK temperatures for June and July were 1.5C above the normal in the north of the UK. In the south they were closer to the average. Rainfall amounts also varied enormously. Wales, northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland were drier than average, but it was very wet in parts of the south.

UK sunshine levels in June and July were 107% and 111% of the normal.  

August was a cooler month. Although high pressure dominated later on it was centred to the north of the UK. That resulted in a lot of cloudy and cool weather.

The meteorological autumn can bring big contrasts in the UK's weather. During the early weeks a continuation of summer-like weather isn't unusual but by November the risk of wintry snaps increases. A possible La Niña phase this year suggests an increased chance of cold snaps in late autumn and the early part of the winter. 

Autumn overview

The TWO meteorological autumn 2021 headline is for a milder and drier than average season. Temperatures are forecast to be above the 30 year average with the positive anomalies tending to come during September and October. November is expected to be the coolest and probably wettest of the three months relative to the averages.  

Autumn colours

Autumnal colours

Warm start and a cold finish?

The forecast is for a mixed September with the most unsettled period occurring through the middle part of the month. On the whole temperatures are likely to be slightly above the average and precipitation levels close to or slightly below the average.

October is also expected to be warmer and slightly drier than average.

The seasonal outlook suggests an unsettled November with temperatures and precipitation both close to average. The chance of wintry conditions developing during the second half of the month is considered to be greater than normal, particularly in the north of the UK.



The meteorological autumn is forecast to be drier and milder than average.


TWO seasonal forecast for autumn 2021

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14 day outlook

Monthly outlook

Seasonal outlook


A huge range of charts and data is freely available.

Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.