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Summer 2021 weather forecast

Overview and context


05/06/2021

Overview

The TWO summer 2021 weather forecast covers June, July and August. The headline is for above average temperatures and close to or slightly below normal rainfall. The most settled periods are expected to be in June and August.

Over the three month period the forecast is for Central England Temperature (CET) to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average. Precipitation levels of between 75% and 100% are suggested.

Herd of deer. Posted by brian gaze

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • A number of long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres. The ones considered this year were GloSea, ECM, Meteo France, DWD, CS3, Beijing Climate Center, CanSIPS, CFS v2.
  • Recent climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts 
  • Pattern matching or analogues from previous years     

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often inaccurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can make even short range forecasting very difficult.

Summary

The June headline is for above average temperatures and rain amounts to be close to or slightly below the average.

July is forecast to be quite unsettled, with close to average temperatures and above average rainfall.

August is expected to be warmer than average, with close to or slightly below average amount so rain.

TWO seasonal forecast

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