June has been very mixed so far. The first ten days brought rather cool conditions but since then it has warmed up. It has also been unsettled with heavy rain and thundery downpours affecting much of the UK.
How are things looking as we head into July and the heart of the summer? Do the latest computer model weather forecasts suggest a hot and dry month, or do they support the TWO summer forecast issued in late May? It suggested July would be a changeable month.
In the next week or so there is a strong signal for a period of settled and very warm weather to develop. However, it may not last and in the longer term things are looking quite mixed.
The GEFS postage stamp chart below shows the forecast maximum temperatures on Friday 3rd July. Each stamp represents the output from one of the GEFS model runs. The key is to look for commonalities between the runs to identify the most likely scenario.
At this stage most of the runs show temperatures close to or a little above the seasonal average. A few have high temperatures in northern France but none really bring the heat into the UK.
The GEFS postage stamp chart below shows the forecast rain on Friday 3rd July between 12:00pm and 6:00pm. The key is to look at how many of the individual model runs are showing rain and if there is much sign of regional variation.
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The plot suggests a risk of showery rain in all regions during the early part of the month. There isn't really a strong signal for regional variation, although that could emerge as we approach early July and the models begin to firm up on the prospects.
The TWO seasonal forecast suggested increasingly unsettled weather during the second half of July. It is still a very long way off in weather forecasting terms. Nonetheless, at this stage TWO continues to expect a mixed month with very warm or hot conditions at times in the south and east. Temperatures generally are likely to be closer to the average in the north and west.
A dry and settled month isn't considered the most probable outcome. However, the possibility is not discounted and rainfall amounts have swung wildly so far this year. Late winter brought a very wet period and then for much of the spring it was notably dry and warm.
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See the Model inventory for the full list of model charts and data