UK winter 2019-20

Update 2

Overview

For the latest view see:

Balance could be changing - Winter 2019/20 update 3, Issued on November 4th 2019

For more context and background information please read:

Winter 2019/20 weather, Long range forecast signals issued on July 30th 2019

August and September

All months to date this year have recorded an average or above average Central England Temperature (CET). Summer 2019 was warm, although more mixed than last year's. Despite that, the UK's hottest day was recorded on Thursday 25th July when 38.7C was reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden. 

September has been cooler so far. To the 12th the provisional CET is 14.3C which is 0.1C below the 1961-90 average. However, there are indications of warmer than average days during the rest of the month, although nights may often be quite cool.

When producing the winter forecast the September weather patterns are considered. A cool and cyclonic month is counted as a weak factor in favour of a colder winter. On the other hand a warm and anticyclonic month is considered to favour a mild winter.

It is important to emphasise that a correlation between warm Septembers and milder than average winters is not accepted by many, but the TWO view is that it has existed in recent decades.   

Seasonal models

At this early stage most of the long range computer models are suggesting a milder than average winter in the UK.

D/J/F = December, January, February

The Climate Forecast System v2 is available on TWO. View the latest CFS v2 charts.

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Indexes and teleconnections

See the July update for more background information.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

This year the likelihood of a neutral is considered to be higher than the norm.

Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)

The QBO switched to a positive phase in November 2018. The mean period of each phase is 28 or 29 months, so there is a high likelihood of it staying positive through the winter. If that happens, it would be a factor supportive of a milder winter.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Forecasting the ENSO conditions several months ahead is prone to error, but at the moment El Nino is favoured to be neutral through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Solar Activity

The coming winter is expected to coincide with the minimum in Solar Cycle 24. Thereafter activity is expected to steadily recover as Solar Cycle 25 begins.

Summary

It is too early for a clear signal for winter 2019/20 to emerge. Recent climatology favours milder conditions as do most of the seasonal forecasts models. However not all of the background signals offer support for this scenario. 

At this stage the TWO view is the balance of evidence weakly supports a milder than average winter.

Regular updates will be issued before the TWO winter forecast is released at the end of November.

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