Change on the way this week

[Updated 06:45 01/02/2021]

Heavy snow falling on wet ground. Posted by brian gaze

February is starting with cold and quiet weather in much of the UK. The next few days are set to bring a change. Tonight and tomorrow outbreaks of rain spread northeastwards with milder conditions following into the south. In the north it will be cold enough for snow and substantial falls are expected in places. Towards the end of the week colder air probably begins returning southwards.

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Heavy snow falling on wet ground. Posted by brian gaze View the full size picture.

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Monday starts dry in most of the UK and there has been a frost in the north. Through the day sleet and snow showers continue in Scotland. In Northern Ireland and possibly south western Britain, spells of rain, sleet or snow develop. Elsewhere it stays dry with variable amounts of cloud. 

Temperatures range from 2C (36F) in Scotland to 11C (52F) in the south west of England.

Arpege forecast chart 1
Meteo France Arpege, rain and snow, 15:00 GMT Mon 1st February

Tonight a band of persistent rain pushes northeastwards, it reaches southern Scotland by the morning. Across the northern half of Scotland clear spells lead to a sharp frost.

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Tomorrow the band of rain continues to slowly edge northeastwards. Sleet and snow continues to fall on its leading edge. Some heavy falls of snow are likely, particularly over high ground in northern England and southern Scotland. The northern half of Scotland may remain dry and cold. Milder conditions follow into the south and some brighter spells are possible, but further outbreaks of showery rain spread into the west. 

Arpege chart 2
Meteo France Arpege, rain and snow, 15:00 GMT Tue 2nd February

Very cold period?

Wednesday looks cold in the north with an ongoing risk of sleet or snow. The rest of the UK has a milder day and heavy outbreaks of rain are possible in in the south. 

Through the second half of the week the favoured scenario is for the much colder weather in the north to spread southwards. By the weekend it could be very cold in all of the country. Heavy snow showers are probably in the north and east. However, there is a moderate chance of it staying less cold in the south and south west. 

GFS chart 1
GFS, surface pressure and precipitation, 15:00 GMT Fri 5th February

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