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November outlook

Chilly and and unsettled weather


02/11/2019

Overview

September and October were mixed months. The Central England Temperature (CET) for the former was 0.7C above the average but for the latter it was approximately 0.6C below. October also brought very wet periods to much of the country. Will the November CET finish below the average and are we likely to see an early taste of winter this year? 

Frosty day
By allen watkin from London, UK (Frosty) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Chilly and unsettled

The TWO monthly forecast headline is for a slightly colder and wetter than average November. Nonetheless forecast confidence is low when looking a month ahead. 

During the next few days unsettled weather is expected. Temperatures generally won't be too far off the seasonal average but in the north they begin to take a dip. By the end of the month's first week colder air is expected to push southwards across all regions. It could also become drier for a time, although showers continue in places. 

The chilly conditions probably continue through the second week of the month. It will be quite unsettled so all regions can expect more spells of rain. Over high ground in the north it may well be cold enough for snow and even at low levels some wintry precipitation is possible.   

In the longer term there are indications of temperatures trending upwards towards the seasonal average. However, it is expected to stay predominantly unsettled through the second half of the month.

The postage stamp chart below shows the pressure patterns being forecast on Monday 18th November by each of the runs in the GEFS ensemble model. On balance a westerly flow is favoured, however there is a range of other possible outcomes. 

GEFS London 850hPa temperatures and precipitation stamp 850hPA temperatures

 

Summary

The TWO monthly forecast is for a slightly colder and wetter than average month. The latest computer model data points to unsettled and chilly weather during much of the first half of the month. Beyond that it is forecast to stay quite unsettled but there is a signal for temperatures to return to the seasonal average.

TWO monthly forecast

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