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Bonfire Night 2019

Unsettled weather returning?


31/10/2019

Overview

Guy Fawkes night falls on a Tuesday this year so many fireworks parties are likely to take place on Saturday 2nd November. In recent years mild and damp conditions have been quite typical, with cold and frost at a premium. This year the autumn has brought a lot of very wet weather but a change to a more settled and colder pattern is expected in late October. Will it last until Bonfire Night?

Fireworks
Firework photomontage by Billy Hicks - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

Unsettled outlook

Unsettled weather is expected to become established and continue through the Bonfire Night period. All regions can expect to see spells of rain and at times it will be windy. Temperatures fluctuate and it could become quite cold at times, particularly in the north. Day to day details will vary but even during unsettled periods dry intervals do come along.

The GFS 00z chart below shows forecast rainfall at 21:00GMT on Tuesday 5th November. It is showing showers in coastal counties but inland areas are mainly dry. Unfortunately it is still too early to be confident about this outcome and it is possible that disturbances from the Atlantic will arrive earlier or later and bring more widespread rain.

GFS 00z precipitation

The corresponding temperature plot favours fairly chilly conditions, particularly in the north. Since the last update to this discussion the chance of frost on Bonfire Night has increased.  

GFS 00z temperature plot

Summary

Unsettled weather will return for the Bonfire Night period. It means there is a risk of rain, however even during unsettled spells there are drier intervals. At the moment there are suggestions that one of these will coincide with Bonfire Night. Saturday 2nd, when many people will be attending displays or having their own fireworks, looks mixed with a risk of rain or showers but also drier periods.

Latest 16 day probability forecasts

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