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October outlook

More settled mid-month?


04/10/2019

September overview and early October

The provisional Central England Temperature (CET) for September was 14.3C which is 0.7C above the 1961-90 average. Rainfall was 127% of average taken across the UK as a whole. Below average rainfall totals were restricted to northern Scotland, parts of East Anglia and Kent. So on balance the month was warmer and wetter than the climatological norm.

October has started unsettled with rain in much of the country. What does the rest of the month have in store?

Autumnal scene

More settled by mid month?

Unsettled weather is predicted to continue for much of the next 10 days. An Atlantic flow probably brings a succession of disturbances across the UK. They lead to an increased risk of wet and windy periods. Despite the rain, temperatures probably won't be too far from the seasonal average.

During the middle part of the month there are tentative indications of high pressure having more influence, particularly in the south of the country. If that happens the chance of drier and settled periods will increase.



The GEFS postage stamp chart below is for Sunday 20th October. It plots the pressure pattern across the North Atlantic as forecast by each of the GEFS ensemble model runs. It is a mixed picture but quite a few of the stamps show high pressure building close to the UK.

GEFS postage stamp chart for Saturday 20th October

More changeable later in the month?

During the last third of October there are indications of more changeable weather returning. Confidence is low, but a number of computer model runs are showing an Atlantic flow becoming more dominant again across all parts of the UK. That suggests further wet and windy spells.

Summary

During the middle of October the unsettled weather may tend to become more confined to the north of the UK. In the south the risk of nighttime fog and frost possibly increase. However, things are very uncertain and a number of computer model runs show it remaining more generally unsettled. During the last third of the month a more unsettled pattern could prevail.

TWO monthly forecast

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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