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September forecast

Close to average month


01/09/2019

The meteorological autumn begins

The September forecast suggests a mixed month. Unsettled and rather cool periods are expected. During the second half of the month the chance of warmer and drier weather increases.

Autumnal mist

"Nebelostfriesland" by Matthias Süßen. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons.

More settled after mid month?

Through the first half of the month a changeable theme is expected to dominate. The risk of wet weather may extend southwards in particular during the second week. With high pressure centred to the west of the UK a rather cool west or northwesterly air stream remains in place for much of the period.

There are indications of high pressure having more influence from the middle of the month. That suggests an increasing chance of settled spells.

The chart below shows the forecast pressure patterns on Tuesday 17th September from each run in the GEFS ensemble computer model. The key things to note are:

1) A majority of runs show high pressure having a significant influence

2) The positioning of high pressure blocks is varied and therefore uncertain 

3) Some runs keep a more unsettled pattern in place

GEFS 00z 500hPa postage stamps

Fine spells most likely in the south

It is not certain, but at the moment the most settled weather during the second half of the month looks to be in the south. There is a greater chance of Atlantic disturbances continuing to bring rain to the north.

Summary

The September weather prospects are looking varied. At the time of publication the expectation is for temperatures to be close to the 30 year average. There is a signal for precipitation levels to be slightly above the average but there are indications of more settled periods developing later.

TWO monthly forecast

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