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Autumn 2019

Seasonal forecast issued


31/08/2019

Overview

Summer 2019 was mixed. It brought unsettled and very wet periods, but also record breaking heat. The UK's highest ever temperature was officially recorded at Cambridge University Botanic Garden measured 38.7C (101.7F) on Thursday 25th July beating the previous UK record of 38.5C (101.3F), set in Kent in 2003.

The meteorological autumn can bring big contrasts in the weather across the UK. During the early weeks a continuation of summer-like weather isn't unusual but by November the risk of wintry snaps increases.

Autumn overview

The TWO meteorological autumn 2019 headline is for a mild and quite wet season. Temperatures are forecast to be above the 30 year average with the positive anomalies tending to come in October and November. Precipitation levels are expected to be slightly above the average overall.  

Autumn mist

"Nebelostfriesland" by Matthias Süßen. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons.

October and November

The forecast suggests a reasonable start to October in the south. More unsettled weather in the northern half of the UK is expected to steadily push southeastwards through the first half of the month. Later on wet and windy periods are likely to become more dominant in all regions.

The seasonal outlook suggests an unsettled November with temperatures slightly above the average over the month as a whole. In the north there is a greater likelihood of colder than average conditions in the second half of the month.



Summary

The meteorological autumn is forecast to be wetter and warmer than average. However the south probably has quite a lot of dry weather during September.

As is often the case:

1) the risk of stormy spells is expected to increase through October

2) the possibility of wintry incursions in the north increases in November

TWO seasonal forecast for autumn 2019

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