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The summer Bank Holiday is on Monday 26th August. Summer 2019 has been very mixed. The UK's hottest day was recorded in July but there have been long unsettled periods too. August to the 20h has been warmer than average based on Central England Temperature (CET), however it has been wet. Will summer provide a last hurrah?
Ensemble computer models now suggest the likelihood of very warm and dry weather during the Bank Holiday weekend in the southern half of the UK.
The London GEFS 00z ensemble plot below suggests upper air temperatures are likely to be well above the 30 year average. Temperatures at the ground level in the south could exceed 30C (86F) and there is a chance of Bank Holiday Monday being the hottest on record. In the north temperatures won't be as high.
The lower half of the plot shows forecast rainfall. Dry conditions are shown early in the period and the confidence level is high. By Monday the risk of rain begins to increase. Comparable plots for more northerly locations show a greater chance of wet periods, especially on Sunday and Monday.
The postage stamp plot below shows the forecast rainfall from each GEFS run for the afternoon of Monday 26th August. It suggests a dry day is probable in the south and east. The chance of rain in the north and west is higher and there is still a possibility of it spreading southwards.
A very warm and summery late August Bank Holiday weekend in the southern half of the country is favoured at the time of publication. Temperatures will be above the average and in the southern half of the UK it will be hot. Rain is more likely in the north and west, especially later on..
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