News and information

Summer 2019 weather forecast

Overview and context


04/06/2019

Overview

The TWO summer 2019 weather forecast covers June, July and August. The headline is for slightly above average temperatures and rainfall. The driest and warmest periods are expected to be in August.

Over the three month period the forecast is for Central England Temperature (CET) to be 0.5C to 1.5C above the average. Precipitation levels of between 95% and 115% are suggested.

Late summer day

How is the forecast produced?

Factors considered include the following:

  • A number of long range computer models run by the global forecasting centres. The ones considered this year were GloSea, ECM, Meteo France, DWD, CS3, Beijing Climate Center, CanSIPS, CFS v2.
  • Recent climatology
  • Trends during recent seasons
  • ENSO and Atlantic Hurricane season forecasts 
  • Pattern matching or analogues from previous years     

Forecast accuracy

Long range forecasts for the UK and north western Europe continue to display a low skill, in other words they are often not accurate. This in large part is because the edge of the European landmass is affected by different air masses which can make even short range forecasting very difficult.

Summary

June is expected to be slightly wetter and warmer than average. Spells of fine and warm weather are considered most likely in the second half of the month.

July is forecast to be mixed with a trend towards more unsettled conditions later on.

August is thought to be the month most likely to produce extended periods of dry and warm or very warm weather.

TWO seasonal forecast

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