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The Download festival takes place between Friday June 14th to Sunday 16th at Donington Park near Derby. The weather is often quite mixed during the early part of the summer as the European Monsoon or "return of the westerlies" sets in. This is the period when there is a tendency for a westerly flow to strengthen across the UK after a late spring lull. As the name suggests it can lead to rain.
By Domharrison (Own work) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
June started very warm but it quickly turned more unsettled and cooler. Computer models are showing a changeable weather during the Download Festival period. Heavy and persistent outbreaks of rain are expected in the next few days, however there are signs of brighter and more showery conditions returning during the Download Festival period.
The charts below are from the GEFS00z update, Monday 10th June 2019. The GEFS ensemble helps to identify the probabilities of different weather outcomes. It works by running the same computer model 20 times with different starting conditions to help account for uncertainty.
The postage stamp plot shows forecast rainfall from each GEFS model run on the afternoon of Saturday 15th.
There is uncertainty about the forecast details. Most of the runs show the possibility of wet weather. At this time of the year rain often comes in the form of showers rather than persistent outbreaks. Therefore the runs which show rain could be suggesting a mix of sunshine and showers rather than a washout.
The temperature postage stamp plot is for Saturday 18th June.
Often the GEFS temperatures forecasts are 2C or so below the outcome for a given set-up. However the general picture now suggested is a coolish one for mid-June. Until recently some of the data had been showing a switch to much warmer conditions, but that now is unlikely.
Up to 16 days ahead
16 day Download Festival weather forecast
16 day probability forecast (Sheffield link is close enough for this type of medium range ensemble forecast)
Up to 3 days ahead
Changeable weather is expected during the Download Festival period. Showers or longer spells of rain are a possibility but there are some signs of things progressively improving. During Saturday and Sunday high pressure may start to have more influence. If that happens the likelihood of drier periods will increase, but it is not certain.
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