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Spring Bank Holiday

Whitsun 2019 weather


21/05/2019

Settled weather on the way

The weather during the coming days is expected to be  changeable. Will the mixed theme continue for the Whitsun Bank Holiday which is on Monday 27th May?

Stomehenge

By by simonwakefield [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Outlook isn't great

The charts below are from the GEFS06z update, Tuesday 21st May 2019 and are for Bank Holiday Monday. The GEFS ensemble helps to identify the probabilities of different weather outcomes. It works by running the same computer model 20 times with different starting conditions to help account for uncertainty.

Wet conditions possible

It remains too early to be certain about the details. In general quite changeable weather is favoured for the bank holiday period. High pressure is most likely to bring drier and warmer conditions to the southern half of the UK.

The postage stamp plot below shows forecast rainfall from each GEFS model run on the afternoon of Monday 27th May. Most of the runs show the potential for showery rain.

GEFS rain postage stamps

Hot conditions unlikely

The temperature postage stamp plot below suggests fairly average temperatures. The highest values are in the south where the spread is approximately 15C (59F) to 21C (70F). Currently there is no sign of a repeat of last year's heat. Most model runs show the heat remaining well to the south and east of the UK in continental Europe.

GEFS temperature postage stamps

Summary

The Whitsun Bank Holiday weekend is expected to be mixed. It could be quite warm at times, especially in southern and central areas. The driest and warmest conditions currently look most likely to be in the southern half of the UK during the first half of the period.

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