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Easter 2019

Warmer than average?


18/04/2019

Late Easter favours warmth

Easter Sunday falls on April 21st this year which is the latest it has been since 2011. The late Easter suggests an increased likelihood of warmer weather. However, the early part of April has brought mixed conditions and the Central England Temperature (CET) to the 6th is provisionally lower than it finished in February and March. Even late in the  month wintry conditions are possible, a good example is the famous cold spell in April 1981.

Easter scene

Easter eggs amsterdam" by Rotemdan - Own work. Licensed under Attribution via Wikimedia Commons

Easter weather outlook

Computer models suggest that high pressure will be centred to the northeast of the UK during the Easter period. The key points are:

1) It is expected to be dry throughout the Easter period in much of the country but there is a likelihood of rain in the north west

2) It is expected to be warm or very warm in most of the UK, although it could become cooler in the north west 

The GEFS 06z postage stamp plot (generated on Thursday 18th April) below shows forecast maximum temperatures for Easter Sunday. GEFS is an ensemble computer model which helps to determine the probability of different weather outcomes.

The stamps strongly favour it being warm or very warm.

GEFS6z

GEFS 06z ensemble maximum temperature plots for Easter Sunday

 

The Easter Sunday rain forecast chart below is also from the GEFS 06z model. They suggest dry conditions in most areas, although rain is likely in the north west. 

GEFS6z Easter Sunday rain forecast

GEFS 06z ensemble rain forecast plots for Easter Sunday

Summary

A warm or very Easter period with a good deal of dry weather is expected. In the north west the risk of rain increases on Easter Sunday. On Monday wet weather could affect parts of the north west and west, but most places should keep the fine weather. 

The charts used above are for Easter Sunday but the same general theme applies from Good Friday through the weekend and into Bank Holiday Monday.

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From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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