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Provisionally, up to the 15th February the Central England Temperature (CET) is +5.1C which is 1.2C above the 30 year average. Despite expectations of a cold period the first half of the month turned out to be mild. It followed a mild December and a close to average January. Will the last part of the meteorological winter see colder conditions developing or can more springlike weather be expected?
In the short term more mixed and less mild conditions are likely to return. The change will be caused by high pressure declining and disturbances from the Atlantic making inroads over the UK. However, computer models suggest it won't be long before high pressure builds and settled conditions come back.
Temperatures will be dependent on where the high pressure becomes centred. Computer models suggest it will stay to the east of the UK and be far enough south to stop cold continental air filtering westwards towards the UK. Instead a mild south or southwesterly flow is favoured. There is the potential for it to become unseasonably warm and there is a chance of temperatures challenging February records.
The GEFS postage stamp chart below is for Sunday 24th February. Each stamp represents one run of the computer model with the starting conditions tweaked to help account for uncertainty. The majority of the runs show mild or very mild weather. In the south there is a good chance of temperatures climbing into the teens Celsius. The GEFS has a tendency to underestimate temperatures by a couple of degrees so it may be even milder than the chart shows.
The first half of February was mild in much of the UK. In the short term temperatures are expected to dip and it becomes more changeable. The more mixed weather should not last for long with high pressure building back from the south next week. Temperatures often stay above the 30 year average and there is a chance of it becoming unusually mild or warm for the time of the year.
As well as mild it should often be dry, although Atlantic disturbances perhaps continue to bring rain to the north. By the end of the month and in early March there are tentative indications of it turning cooler or colder.
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