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The UK seasonal forecast headline is for winter 2018/19 to be colder than the norm.
Precipitation levels are expected to be on the low side when measured across the UK as a whole, but regional variations are likely to be significant. There is considered to be an above average incidence of snow in all regions.
The coldest periods are forecast to be in January and February with mild spells more frequent in December. Nonetheless, confidence is low and a very mild winter, rather than an average one, is considered the second most probable outcome.
The forecast was produced by looking at a number of factors, including:
Forecast confidence for winter 2018/19 is very low. A number of indicators such as low solar activity, seasonal models and recent climatology suggest an increased chance of high pressure blocking which strengthens the possibility of cold periods in the UK. The weather patterns during September and October are thought to favour a cold winter but the mild November isn't.
In conclusion the TWO view is there is an elevated risk of disruptive snowfall and cold weather during the December, January and February period.
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