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Halloween 2018 weather

Could it turn cold?


17/10/2018

Overview

Late October often brings unsettled weather but fine and settled spells are also perfectly possible. Halloween 2014 was the warmest on record in the UK. Gravesend, Kent and Kew Gardens, Greater London both recorded temperatures of 23.6C (74.3F) on 31st October and in much of the south temperatures exceeded 20C (68F).

Halloween
By Rene Cunningham (Flickr: Borough Market) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

This year's Halloween weather

Ensemble computer models suggest the possibility of the weather turning more changeable in the run up to Halloween. Nonetheless a significant number of the individual runs show high pressure continuing to keep a more settled pattern in place. There is also a signal for it to turn cooler or colder and if that happens, the winter woollies could be making an early appearance this year.

The postage stamp chart below shows forecast rainfall at 18:00GMT on Halloween. Despite the likelihood of it becoming more changeable, quite a few of the runs show dry conditions. Based on this data, rain is most likely in the north and in coastal districts, the latter suggesting the possibility of it being showery.

GEFS06z precipitation postage stamp plot for Halloween 2017

 

Summary

It is too early to be confident about the Halloween 2018 weather prospects. At the moment ensemble computer models are hinting at more mixed weather developing later this month. Despite that there is a reasonably good chance of dry conditions prevailing in much of the country. It may also turn colder and if that were to happen snow would be a possibility over high ground in the north.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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Cuisine Fiend Halloween
Cuisine Fiend Halloween

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