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September prospects

Best in the south


03/09/2018

Start of the meteorological autumn

The TWO September forecast suggests a mixed month with more emphasis on drier and warmer periods in the south. September 2017 brought above average rainfall to most of the country and close to average temperatures. The UK mean temperature was 12.6C which is 0.1C below the 1981-200 average.

Autumnal scene

Mid-term prospects

During early September more unsettled weather is expected to develop for a time and all areas could see showery outbreaks of rain. Drier and warmer conditions probably return quite quickly in southern counties and the more settled weather could extend northwards during the second week of the month.

Computer models are suggesting that high pressure will continue to have a lot of influence on the UK's weather during the second half of the month.

The chart below shows the forecast pressure patterns on Tuesday 18th September from each run in the GEFS ensemble computer model. The key things to note are:

1) A majority of the runs show high pressure influencing the weather in the south and east. 

2) The risk of weather fronts from the Atlantic bringing wet and windy conditions is the highest in the north and west of the UK.

3) A significant number of the runs show a warm or very warm air mass over the UK.

Summary

The September weather is looking mixed but there should be further settled periods with the best of them in the south. Temperatures are forecast to be above average and rainfall levels close to average in the north but lower in the south.

TWO monthly forecast

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