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Autumn 2018

Seasonal forecast issued


31/08/2018

Overview

Summer 2018 brought extended spells of settled and very warm weather. The Central England Temperature (CET) finished 1.9C above the June average and a massive 3.1C above the July average. Despite August being a more mixed month with wetter conditions in all regions at times, the CET still finished over 1C above the 1981-2010 average.

The meteorological autumn can bring big contrasts in the weather across the UK. During the early weeks a continuation of summerlike weather isn't unusual but during November the risk of colder snaps and snow increases significantly.

Autumn overview

The TWO autumn 2018 headline is fine start but unsettled later. Temperatures are forecast to be above the 30 year average but much of that is due to warmer than average conditions in September and October. Precipitation levels are expected to be slightly below the average overall, but the second half of the season may well be a lot wetter than the first half.  

Autumn mist

"Nebelostfriesland" by Matthias Süßen. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons.

October and November

The forecast suggests a reasonable amount of settled weather in the southern half of the UK in early October but more changeable conditions in the north. Towards the middle of the month the more unsettled weather is likely to push southeastwards leading to an increasing risk of wet and windy spells. That trend continues during the second half of the month.

The seasonal outlook suggests November will often be unsettled and as the month progresses the risk of colder spells increases. Over the month as a whole temperatures are expected to be close to the average but in the north there is a greater likelihood of them being below average. 



Summary

The meteorological autumn is forecast to be drier and warmer than average. However, a disproportionate amount of the settled periods is likely to be in the first half of the season with things turning a lot more unsettled in the second half of October and through November.

TWO seasonal forecast for autumn 2018.

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