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Flaming June

Hot and dry?


19/06/2018

June lives up to its name for once?

Despite the expression "flaming June" the month is often characterised by unsettled weather as westerly winds bring spells of rain in from the Atlantic. This is sometimes called the return of the westerlies or the European Monsoon, however there are signs that things will be different this year. A very warm or hot spell looks very possible. 

Drought sign

Hot weather ahead?

In the short term cooler air pushes southwards across all regions as high pressure becomes centred west of the UK. However by the end of the week it is set to warm up and that pattern probably continues through next week. In the southern half of the UK it could become hot.

The GEFS ensemble model graph below covers the period between 19th June and 5th July. On the top half of the  upper air temperatures from the individual model runs are plotted. After taking a dip in the short term they rise and reach a peak at the start of July. The mean of all the runs shows values of about 12C (54F) which would give temperatures close to 28C (84F) at the surface in sunny periods. However, some of the runs show upper air temperatures a few degrees higher and if that were to happen 30C (86F) would probably be exceeded in the southern half of the UK.

GEFS London plot

 

The Global Forecast System (GFS) operational run was one of the warmest runs in the ensemble. The chart below shows the maximum temperatures it is forecasting for Thursday 28th June. Often the GFS under forecasts temperatures by about 2C for a given set-up so 32C (90F) would not be out of the question if the forecast pattern turns out to be close to the outcome.

GFS 6z max temperatures

More uncertain in the north?

As well as very warm or hot it also looks mostly dry in the southern half of the UK. In the north there are signs of it staying more changeable and cooler due to more of an Atlantic influence persisting. Nonetheless the signals are that even in the north there should be quite a lot of settled and warm weather through the rest of the month.



Summary

The last third of June brings the potential for a hot and mostly dry spell of weather. The highest temperatures look like being in the southern half of the UK as is often the case. Some computer model runs show values exceeding 30C (86F) as high pressure pushes eastwards across the UK and into the near continent.

See the monthly forecast update for more information. 

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