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The 2018 Whitsun Bank Holiday is on Monday, 28th May this year. The coming days are expected to bring a lot of fine and settled weather but will that continue into the Spring (or Whitsun) Bank Holiday weekend?
By by simonwakefield [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
The charts below are from the GEFS00z update, Tuesday 22nd May 2018 and are for Bank Holiday Monday. The GEFS ensemble helps to identify the probabilities of different weather outcomes. It works by running the same computer model 20 times and varying the starting conditions each time to help account for uncertainty.
Forecast details are uncertain, however an area of low pressure is expected to be pushing up from the south. That brings the threat of thunderstorms or longer spells of rain, particularly to southern and western regions. There is time for things to change and it is possible that most places will have a dry and fine Bank Holiday Monday.
The postage stamp plot shows the forecast temperatures from each GEFS model run on the afternoon of Monday 28th May. Most of the individual runs show very warm or even hot conditions in the south and there is an outside chance of 30C (86F) being recorded. The north is expected to be cooler but still pleasantly warm.
The current forecast data suggests temperatures will be rising through the weekend. By Bank Holiday Monday it may be hot in southern and central regions. Thunderstorms are potentially an issue with the greatest risk of downpours in the south and west. In the north it won't be as warm but it should often be dry and sunny.
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