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April update

The rest of the month


A disappointing first half

The first half of April brought mixed weather. Despite a perception that it was chilly, the provisional Central England Temperature (CET) to the 15th is 1.3C above the 30 year average. The reasons for that are probably twofold:

1) Overcast skies have held up nighttime temperatures and that has offset the daytime chill

2) The coldest conditions have been in the north of the UK which is not in the CET area

Regardless of temperatures April so far has often been wet and gloomy. Will things change during the rest of the month?




The second half of April

In the short term a transition to a much warmer and drier spell looks to be baked in. Temperatures on April 19th and 20th may push towards 27C (81F) in the south. Beyond that it is expected to become more changeable, especially in the north, but the south could have a good deal of dry weather until late in the month. 

The annotated 16 day GEFS ensemble plot for London gives some pointers. In the short term it becomes very warm and mostly dry. Beyond April 22nd the likelihood is for temperatures to dip but probably remain above average for a lot of the time in the south. Comparable plots for northern locations show a somewhat cooler scenario. The likelihood of  rain also increases with a more noticeable trend back to wetter conditions in the north appearing. During the last few days of April a cooler and wetter period is favoured in all locations. There is time for change but that is something to bear in mind as the early May Bank Holiday approaches. 


GEFS 06z London line graph 


A period of very warm weather is forecast to develop in the short term but by 22nd cooler conditions probably return and the risk of rain increases. Despite that southern areas should often be dry and quite warm. During the last few days of the month and in the approach to the early May Bank Holiday weekend unsettled and cooler conditions in the north may push southwards.

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