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During the first third of November the Central England Temperature (CET) has been very close to the average. The TWO monthly forecast headline issued on 2/11 was for the month to be slightly colder than average with close to average precipitation amounts. Does the latest data from computer models support that?
In the short term it will be quite cold with wintry showers in northern regions and widespread nighttime frosts. Early next week milder air is expected to return but in the longer term there are signs of further chilly snaps. The pattern across the North Atlantic continues to look quiet for the time of the year so there is an increased chance of blocking high pressure areas forming. That increases the potential for cold Arctic air to push southwards towards the UK. However it is still autumn so the cold pooling to the north and east is not as extensive as it usually is during the winter months.
The GEFS postage stamp plot below shows forecast 850hPa temperatures on Thursday 23rd November. The majority of runs show values below 0C in most of the UK indicating rather cold conditions. The coldest weather will probably be in northern regions and that is where the greatest risk of snow is. Although the chance of snow in southern and central counties is lower the possibility can not be discounted.
The TWO monthly forecast suggests a slightly colder than average November. The first 10 days of the month have brought close to average temperatures but there are signs of cold conditions developing at times during the rest of the month. Wintry weather is expected in northern regions at times and the possibility of snow falling in southern and central counties can not be completely discounted.
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