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The discussion on this page was issued on 13/09/2017. More recent updates are available:
"Winter is coming - update 3" was issued on 30/10/2017.
"Winter 2017/18 - Update 4", issued 18th November 2017
For more context and background information please read our first "Winter 2017/18 weather, Forecast pointers" which was issued on July 25th 2017. The information here is intended to provide an update on developments during the last couple of months.
The first seven months of 2017 all recorded an above average Central England Temperature (CET). Provisional data suggests August bucked the trend with a CET of 14.3C which is 0.2C below average. The first half of September has also brought cool and unsettled spells.
When producing the winter forecast the September weather patterns are considered. A cool and cyclonic month is counted as a weak factor in favour of a colder winter. It is important to emphasise that a correlation between warm Septembers and milder than average winters is not accepted by many, but the TWO view is that it has existed in recent decades.
The emerging picture from seasonal models which cover the December, January and February period is for a milder and wetter than average season.
UK Met Office GloSea:Milder and wetter than average favoured
JamstecMilder than average in the south east. Colder than average in the north west. Wetter than average.
IRINo signal for temperature (meaning all outcomes are equally likely). Wetter than average.
CFS v2Latest update suggests milder and wetter than average conditions in December and January. February looks colder and drier. (Check the latest CFS v2 charts on TWO).
The key things to note since the last update are:
GloSea is consistent
Jamstec has shifted towards a milder season across most of Europe
IRI continues to favour an anomalously mild winter in Greenland. That often means an increased likelihood of cold weather in western Europe.
GloSea precip and temp (September update, source: UK Met Office)
Regardless of what they show, the skill level of seasonal models for the UK and north western Europe is still low. In other words they are not very accurate.
See the July update for more background information.
Possibly close to neutral this winter. That suggests a reasonable chance of colder outbreaks.
The QBO is currently in a negative (easterly) phase and that may continue through the rest of the autumn and winter. If so the chance of a colder winter would be slightly increased.
At the moment ENSO neutral is favoured with a 50% to 55% chance as we head into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2017/18. That means it would not be a strong forcing mechanism on the UK's winter weather patterns.
Despite a downward trend towards the next solar minimum which is expected in 2019 and 2020, there has been quite a lot of activity recently. There is a suggestion that colder winters are more likely to occur in the UK shortly after a solar minimum is reached.
It is still much too early for a clear signal for winter 2017/18 to emerge. As noted in the first update, recent climatology favours milder than average conditions but some of the background signals may suggest otherwise. At this stage the TWO view continues to be that the chance of a colder winter is slightly higher than in recent years.
Regular updates will be issued before the TWO winter forecast is released at the end of November.
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