News and information

Autumn 2017

Long range outlook


01/09/2017

Overview

Summer 2017 was a very mixed season. June brought spells of hot weather to southern and central regions but the north remained more unsettled. The second half of July saw the changeable conditions spreading southwards with all regions having wet spells. August was a cooler month with the Central England Temperature (CET) finishing close to the average. Rainfall amounts varied regionally but on the whole it was quite a wet summer for much of the UK.

Autumn overview

The TWO seasonal forecast headline is for an unsettled autumn with stormy periods. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above the long term average over the September, October and November period. That fits in well with the pattern this year which has seen all months to date delivering temperatures close to or above the average.

During the early part of the autumn there may be quite a lot of dry and fine weather in southern regions with the north generally remaining under a changeable Atlantic flow. Despite that some wet spells are possible in the south too.

Autumn mist

"Nebelostfriesland" by Matthias Süßen. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Wikimedia Commons.

October and November

The forecast suggests the weather will become increasingly unsettled during October. As is typically the case in the UK the stormiest conditions are expected to be in the north and west with higher pressure to the south of the UK leading to some quieter and more benign spells. Unsettled conditions at this time of the year suggests close to or slightly above average temperatures.

November is forecast to bring a continuation of the predominantly unsettled conditions, with northern regions again seeing the worst. The chance of colder and more wintry spells usually increases through November and that is expected to be the case this year. With the likelihood of a mobile pattern for much of the period the chances of colder plunges of air making their way to southern parts of the UK is considered to be quite high. However temperatures are predicted to be close to average over November as a whole.



Summary

An unsettled meteorological autumn is suggested although spells of dry and fine weather are likely early on. Temperatures over the September, October and November period as a whole are forecast to be slightly above the average. November could bring close to average temperatures and a mobile pattern may lead to some short colder incursions in the south, and more wintry spells in the north. The chance of notably stormy spells during October and November is considered to be higher than average and this could turn out to be the key feature of the weather during the three month period.

TWO seasonal forecast for autumn 2017.


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