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August Bank Holiday

Fine weather likely?


23/08/2017

Overview

The late summer Bank Holiday is on Monday 28th August this year. Summer 2017 has brought a mixed bag of weather so will it be going out on a high note?

Latest ensemble view

This morning's GEFS computer model ensemble shows the likelihood of mixed weather during the Bank Holiday weekend. A north to south split is shown with the driest and brightest weather in the south.

The upper half of the London GEFS plot shows 850hPa temperatures continuing to be around +10C through the Bank Holiday weekend. That suggests quite a warm air mass and if the cloud holds back temperatures could push up towards the mid 20Cs. In the north it is cooler.

The lower half of the plot shows forecast rainfall. Although some rain spikes appear there is a decent chance of dry weather for much of the the time in the south, although there is a risk of rain on Monday. In the north it remains more changeable with wet spells.

GEFS00z London 850hPa temperatures and rainfall

 

GEFS rainfall postage stamps

The postage stamp plot shows the forecast rainfall from each GEFS run on the afternoon of Monday 28th August.



Most runs indicate the likelihood of rain in the north of the UK. There is uncertainty about how quickly that will push southeastwards and southern counties could remain dry for most of the day.  

GEFS00z rainfall postage stamp plot

 

Summary

The GEFS ensemble computer model suggests a mixed late August Bank Holiday weekend, however the south could have a good deal of dry and pleasantly warm weather. Showers or longer spells of rain are more likely to affect the north. Forecast confidence remains quite low for Monday.

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