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March was a very mild month. Provisional figures from the Met Office give a Central England Temperature (CET) of 8.4C which is 2.8C above the average. April has begun with high pressure and dry conditions but typically people think of the month as changeable. The widely used proverb "April Showers Bring May Flowers" can be traced back to 1886. Will this month follow the rule?
The headline from the monthly update is for a dry start followed by changeable weather. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above the average and precipitation slightly below. During the middle of the month the forecast points to a risk of wintry conditions in northern areas.
The very latest ensemble computer model data continues to support more changeable weather developing around the 11th April. The postage stamp plot below shows precipitation forecasts from each of the individual GEFS runs on Saturday 15th April. They are a mixed bag with showers or longer spells of rain a possibility around this period in all regions. There is a signal for lower temperatures but the extent of colder conditions is uncertain, and the snow risk will probably be confined to the north. Beyond this the rather changeable picture is expected to continue.
The April forecast headline is for slightly above average temperatures and slightly below average amounts of rain. The latest model data offers support for this outlook and suggests more changeable weather during the middle of the month. Unfortunately this would coincide with the Easter period.
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