The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Storm possible early next week

Posted Thu 23rd January 09:40

The current settled period is expected to break this weekend. High pressure will decline southwards allowing weather fronts to begin returning from the Atlantic. Early next week a disturbance pushing up from the southwest could bring stormy conditions.

Damaging winds possible

The GFS 00z chart below shows forecast pressure patterns for 18:00GMT on Monday 27th January. A small but deep area of low pressure is centred over the north west of the UK. The strongest winds are to the south of it across England and Wales. 

By 15:00GMT wind gust speeds of over 90mph are shown close to south western England and western Wales with gusts of around 70mph over land.

By 18:00GMT gales or severe gales are shown in much of England and Wales. Gusts of 70mph in the London area would be expected to cause disruption. There would also be heavy outbreaks of rain to add to the problems.  

Development very uncertain

The scenario shown by the GFS isn't a given. Other computer models are showing the feature not developing as much and tracking farther south. The ECM chart below for 00:00GMT on Tuesday 28th January suggests the strongest winds are likely to be in the English Channel and over northern France.

Although there is nothing to suggest a repeat of the Great Storm of 1987 there are similarities in the way computer models are showing inconsistencies in the system's expected track and development. As the event is still a number of days away that is to be expected. Therefore I suggest you keep an eye on the forecasts in the coming days as the details begin to firm up. 

TL;DR

There is the potential for a period of stormy weather early next week but computer models don't yet agree on the details. the worst case scenario currently shown is for wind gusts of around 70mph in the London area and 80mph to 90mph in exposed parts of western England and Wales. The details will firm up in the coming days and this could turn out to be nothing out of the ordinary. Nonetheless with some models showing a high impact event so it is definitely worth keeping an eye on the local place or postcode forecasts in the coming days.  

Latest charts

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brian gaze 5 years ago Show replies(1)

antss1: Not heard that suggested before. Can't think they would have a measurable impact.

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antss1 5 years ago Show replies(0)

Buzz do you think aircraft have an effect on the Jetstream and our weather ,cause looking back over the years we are definitely getting less and less North and east winds ,but getting more and more aircraft flying across the Atlantic ?

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antss1 5 years ago Show replies(0)

30 years ago at this time of year high pressure meant blue skies and very cold nights , now it's just dull misty and damp

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bigboblee2001 5 years ago Show replies(0)

Some ie ICON showing 80 to 90 in SE

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