The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Any sign of cold weather

Posted Mon 21st October 10:25

In recent days there has been speculation about the possibility of an early cold snap. That is because some computer model runs have shown high pressure building to the northwest of the UK later this month. If that happened much colder arctic air could sweep southwards. Is it looking likely?

ECM

This morning's ECM 00z model run shows high pressure building to the northwest by 31st October. With low pressure over Scandinavia the UK is under a north or northeasterly flow. Upper air temperatures are not low but if the pattern persisted, colder air to the northeast could begin to reach us. Unfortunately the model run finishes here so it's not possible to see how things evolve. Regardless of that it is worth remembering that at 10 days ahead the accuracy of computer models is low and they should not be relied on.

GFS

To illustrate the point about reliability let's have a look at the GFS 00z. At the same time it shows a very different outcome to the ECM. High pressure is centred to over continental Europe and the UK is sitting under a mild southerly flow.

The Atlantic is looking more subdued than in recent rimes and there are indications of pressure rising to the north of the UK. Nonetheless, it isn't cold and the GFS which does run out further goes on to show a fairly changeable set-up.

GEM

Finally a quick look at the Canadian GEM model. Again the chart is for the same time as the GFS and ECM ones above. The synoptic set-up it shows is quite similar to the ECM. High pressure is centred to the west and a weak northerly flow is pushing down towards the UK. Upper air temperatures are lowest in the east. The GEM charts don't go out any further so again it isn't possible to say how things would develop.

TL;DR

There are signs of high pressure blocks having more influence on the weather during the next couple of weeks. Some model runs shows high pressure becoming established to the northwest of the UK but they are not in a majority. If that were to happen the chance of colder air pushing southwards would be increased. So at the moment the possibility of a cold snap is a heads up rather than a likely outcome.

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