TWO Buzz

Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.

Unsettled focus again

Flooding likely

Posted Tue 8th October 10:04

A few days ago I mentioned the possibility of a warmer and more settled period. Since then the focus has switched back to an unsettled outlook.

More flooding on the way?

The mid-term picture is looking very unsettled again. In the next few days southern and eastern counties probably have more dry weather with showers mostly in the north and west. However, there is the potential for rain this weekend and early next week. Details are uncertain but with the boundary between warm and cool air masses probably becoming slow moving over the central part of the UK there is a risk of it turning very wet in places. I'd not be surprised to see more flooding.

The London GEFS 00z plot below illustrates. A key change since my last post is that high pressure to the south is now expected to have less influence on things. The top half of the plot shows 850hPa temperatures remaining close to the 30 year average for much of the period. On the lower half the rain amounts tick up markedly during the middle third of the month.

London GEFS 00z

Drier later in the month?

There are some suggestions of it becoming less wet again towards the end of the plot. However, forecast confidence at that range is quite low as is usually the case. 

TL;DR

The focus is very much on wet weather and flooding may well become an issue again in the coming days. However, there is some uncertainty about where the heaviest rain will be this weekend and early next week. In the longer term a mostly unsettled pattern is expected to persist, but the chance of drier periods could increase in the south. 

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