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Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Looking into September

Posted Mon 19th August 10:58

September has often seemed more like a continuation of summer than the start of the autumn in recent years. Will it be the case this year?

Summery weather to dominate?

At the moment the outlook is uncertain as we head into the meteorological autumn. The postage stamp plot below shows forecast 850hPa temperatures from the all of this morning's GEFS 00z model runs.

Some of them show a very warm upper air mass with values as high as 20C in southern England. Even though the sun is starting to lose its power there is still the potential for hot weather. Temperatures can exceed 30C in September as has been seen in recent years. There are a number of cooler runs too with 0C 850hPa air making into parts of the north and west. So a very warm scenario to start the month is not a given.

The postage stamp chart below is for the same time and shows the pressure patterns the GEFS 00z model runs are predicting. They are varied. Individually some of them show high pressure in charge but on balance they don't necessarily suggest a particularly settled pattern winning out. Generally it looks more settled farther south as is often the case.

TL;DR

At the moment the prospects for early September look reasonable and fairly typical. However there is uncertainty and some computer model runs are showing a more unsettled scenario. It's also true to say a number of them are painting a very warm picture, particularly in the south.

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